Bitcoin Could Rebound to $100,000 According to Some Liquidation Data

At the start of the year, a technical indicator attracts attention: liquidation data on Bitcoin futures contracts reveals a marked imbalance. This signal, rarely seen at this level, suggests that a simple price movement could be enough to trigger a series of on-chain liquidations. For some analysts, this configuration could propel BTC towards $100,000.

A market under pressure: unbalanced liquidation data

While bitcoin currently hovers between $90,000 and $94,000, the latest data published by CoinGlass show a particularly unbalanced market situation when it comes to leveraged positions.

If the price of bitcoin were to fall back towards $84,000, more than $10.65 billion in long positions would be automatically liquidated. Conversely, a rise towards $104,000 would only trigger $2 billion in short position liquidations.

This imbalance has major implications for future volatility. Liquidations can act as forced market orders, meaning they can sharply accentuate both upward and downward price movements.

Here is the main elements highlighted by CoinGlass data analysis:

• $10.65 billion in long positions would be liquidated if BTC falls to $84,000;

• Only $2 billion of short positions would be liquidated if BTC climbs to $104,000;

• The market is therefore more exposed to downward pressure, with the potential for a domino effect in the event of a fall;

• The situation suggests that the upside squeeze potential is currently limited unless the position allocation changes quickly;

• The market remains unstable: a sudden movement in one direction or the other could lead to violent chain reactions.

Faced with this configuration, analysts call for caution. The data suggests that if a fall towards $84,000 materializes, selling pressure could intensify very quickly. Enough to create a negative spiral much more brutal than the apparent stability of the current price suggests. The upward potential remains dependent on a more aggressive repositioning of market players.

Retail traders under pressure: towards an explosive squeeze?

The analysis takes a different turn when we look at on-chain data specific to individual traders via the Hyperliquid platform.

According to trader ChimpZoo, individual players are massively positioned on the downside. He specifies that “if the market rises, around 6,000 BTC of short positions held by individuals could be liquidated, compared to only 2,000 BTC of long positions in the event of an equivalent decline”.

This situation, qualified “absurd” by the analyst, reveals the possibility of a rapid and sudden increase in the price, fueled by the chain liquidation of these short positions.

However, a closer look at the data moderates this view. In the event of a movement of $10,000 in one direction or the other, the potential liquidations ultimately turn out to be quite symmetrical: around 3,860 BTC in long positions versus 4,100 BTC in short positions.

Crypto analyst Dan has warned that a direct return to new all-time highs is unlikely. According to him, bitcoin must first return above the base cost of holders over six to twelve months to confirm a real trend reversal.

The market remains suspended at key technical thresholds, while bitcoin's RSI explodes, signaling possible overheating. Between liquidation imbalances and resistance at major levels, the trajectory remains uncertain. Only a lasting recovery above critical zones would validate a new upward cycle.