Bitcoin wins, but the real movement could well come from elsewhere. While the market collects a rapid fall, some analysts are already on another engine: the massive return of liquidity of central banks. Behind the figures, a global monetary dynamic takes shape, much more decisive than the current correction. The BTC vacillates, but the flow of capital to come could rewrite everything.
An immediate correction and triggers
Bitcoin experienced a significant drop between March 26 and 29. Indeed, the crypto queen fell from $ 88,060 to $ 82,036, a loss of 7 % in the space of three days. This correction resulted in the elimination of $ 158 million in long positions, which confirmed overheating of the derivative markets and high exposure to the lever.
Such a decline comes while gold, a traditional refuge in period of turbulence, reached a historic record of $ 3,087, which sparked a new wave of comparisons between precious metal and bitcoin.
As the Franzen Caleb analyst points out:
Gold has experienced an uninterrupted upward trend since mid-February, while Bitcoin is now evolving against the tide.
The significant facts of this correction include:
- Strong liquidation in derived markets, with more than $ 158 million in long losses;
- An inversion of the dynamic refuge, with gold in record progression while the BTC bent;
- A potential questioning of the “digital gold” narrative, due to this temporary decorrelation.
This technical withdrawal, although spectacular, fits into a waiting climate before major monetary policy announcements. It also exposes a structural fragility linked to the excess of investors' confidence in the term markets.
The long positions on the BTC, massively fed by recent rallies, were swept away in a brutal readjustment movement. This correction phase, far from announcing a fundamental trend, could thus constitute a breathing in a wider cycle even dictated by global economic policies.
The monetary lever, potential catalyst for the next pulse
Faced with this volatility, some analysts adopt a resolutely different perspective. For them, this drop in bitcoin could be only a simple background noise in a wider environment, where flexible monetary policies are preparing to take the front of the stage.
Arthur Hayes, former CEO of Bitmex, notably defends the idea that the current correction is “insignificant” in the face of what he calls “liquidity tsunami”. In his analysis, he says that “It is not the fall at $ 60,000 that worries me. What matters is that central banks, starting with the Fed, will relaunch monetary printing. »»
On the X platform (ex Twitter), analyst Mihaimihale affirm March 10, 2025 that “tax reductions and a drop in interest rates are necessary to relaunch the economy». In addition, he believes that the growth of the previous year was essentially based on long -term non -sustainable public spending.
Alexandre Vasarhelyi abounds in this direction, but nuances the short -term impact of financial innovation. According to him, “Whether it is $ 77,000 or $ 65,000, it doesn't matter: history is that of still embryonic growth».
Macroeconomic signals seem to strengthen this hypothesis. According to CME Fedwatch Tool, the probability that the federal reserve reduces its key rate to 4 % or less by the end of July has increased to 50 %, against only 40 % the previous week.
This anticipation of a drop in rates is accompanied by increasing pressure for monetary recovery measures, while global growth shows signs of breath.
Furthermore, political initiatives such as the American executive order on the constitution of a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve or the tokenization of real assets (RWA) led by major institutions such as Blackrock strengthen the idea of an increasing integration of bitcoin into long -term economic strategies.
If this scenario is confirmed, the current contraction of the crypto market could be quickly erased by a recovery fueled by the influx of capital. Bitcoin's ability to reposition itself as a reserve of value in the face of inflation could be reinforced by this new overall liquidity injection. In the longer term, these dynamics could also stimulate the appetite of institutional investors for products backed by cryptos, which would consolidate the place of bitcoin in the global financial world.
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