Bitcoin (BTC) is struggling to end February in the green. Will the seven-month hurdle be overcome? We give the outlook for this month of March.
Status of bitcoin (BTC) in the long term
The bulls found it difficult to clear the $25,200 hurdle in February. Nevertheless, bitcoin (BTC) closes the last month above the opening price, with a candle of indecision. We also see the break of a 15-month-old downtrend line. Indeed, the February low appears to be a rebound on this line. After this line, the nearest resistance is found at $25,200. The August 2022 high and the February 2023 high align with this area. This forms a horizontal line of resistance.
We could consider the break of this obstacle, but it would rather be a false break. For what ? Because there are probably buy stops above this zone. Thus, bitcoin (BTC) could cross this level, in order to take these orders. This move will therefore be a liquidation of those who sold BTC around $25,200. Moreover, the 78.6% and 61.8% fib levels of the June range are just above this level. Thus, we could consider this scenario where bitcoin (BTC) rises above $25,200, before starting a correction towards $18,000.
Probable short-term scenarios
Two scenarios are likely for bitcoin (BTC). The price has yet to make a higher high, or a lower low, than Monday’s. We remain uncertain about its direction this week. Thus, we could bet on a bullish week, but also on a bearish week. It depends on today’s movement.
On the H1 scale, we can see that the queen of cryptos has formed support that lines up with Monday’s low. Thus, it could be that the price drops below this level and then rises to $25,200. In this case, one could buy bitcoin (BTC) at $23,000 and set a stop at $22,700. For the second scenario, we will bet on the breakout of the resistance which aligns with Monday’s top. After that, the price might pull back towards $20,000. Given the current movement, the second scenario seems the most likely.
Entry point: $24,200
Stop: $24,600
Goal 1: $22,600
Goal 2: $20,000
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