Bitcoin recorded a decline of over 15% after hitting a new high. Let’s take a look at the future outlook for the BTC price.
Status of Bitcoin (BTC)
Following the listing of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the price of Bitcoin reached a new high at $49,100. However, contrary to expectations, it was from this level that Bitcoin began a decline, bringing it back to around $41,500. This decline pushed the price of Bitcoin to re-enter its old range, located between $45,000 and $40,000, thus causing concern among investors. Nevertheless, the medium to long term trend remains bullish, as suggested by the 50 and 200 day moving averages which remain above the current price. Currently, Bitcoin is consolidating in a range around $42,700. Regarding technical indicators, oscillators such as RSI and MACD are located around the middle threshold. A divergence between these oscillators and the price of Bitcoin indicates a potential period of consolidation or decline ahead.
The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Today trainer at Family Tradinga community of thousands of own-account traders active since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content and mutual assistance around the financial markets in a professional and warm atmosphere.
Focus on derivatives (BTCUSDT)
The BTC/USD liquidation heat map indicates that Bitcoin has been going through an area where different orders have been accumulating since the beginning of January. Significant orders have already formed, particularly above the current price. That said, the largest and closest liquidation zone to the price is around $40,000. As the market approaches these levels, we could see a massive triggering of orders, potentially increasing the volatility of the cryptocurrency. These areas therefore represent major points of interest for investors.
Hypotheses for the price of Bitcoin (BTC)
If the price of Bitcoin manages to stay above $40,000, we could anticipate a further rise to the $45,000 threshold. The next resistance to take into account, if the bullish movement continues, would be $49,000 or $50,000. At this stage, this would represent an increase close to +16%.
If the price of Bitcoin fails to stay above $40,000, we could envisage a return to $38,000. The next level to take into account, if the bearish movement continues, would be around $37,000 or $36,500. At this stage, this would represent a drop close to – 14%.
Conclusion
After failing to reach $49,000, the price of Bitcoin experienced a bearish movement, bringing it back to its old range between $45,000 and $40,000. It seems premature to conclude that the overall upward trend is definitively reversed. However, the continuation of this downward movement could begin to support the correction hypothesis. Therefore, it is important to remain vigilant against potential “fake outs” and “market squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let us remember that these analyzes are based solely on technical criteria and that the price of cryptocurrencies can also evolve quickly depending on other more fundamental factors.
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