Bitcoin (BTC) Ça passe ou ça casse. Analyse du 27 juillet 2023

Bitcoin has entered a corrective phase leading to the break of $40,000. Let’s take a look at the future outlook for the BTC price.

Status of Bitcoin (BTC)

As detailed in the January 16 analysis, Bitcoin has entered a corrective phase. Indeed, the price of Bitcoin fell from $49,000 to close last week around $41,500. This Monday, Bitcoin failed to counter this bearish pressure. At the time of writing, it is trading around $39,500. Thus, it appears that the $40,000 support level has been breached to the downside. Although Bitcoin’s medium to long-term trend remains bullish, its continued decline has taken its price below the 50-day moving average. This development suggests the possibility of a trend reversal, thus encouraging investors to be more vigilant and to consider readjusting their strategies.

Concerning the oscillators, they are currently below the median threshold. From an optimistic point of view, this situation could indicate that Bitcoin is in an oversold condition, thus suggesting that it could be undervalued. On the other hand, from a pessimistic point of view, this can mean that the momentum is becoming bearish. Note, the presence of a divergence between these oscillators and the price of Bitcoin would reinforce this idea.

BTCUSD Daily Chart
BTCUSD Daily Chart

The current technical analysis was carried out in collaboration with Elie FT, a passionate investor and trader in the cryptocurrency market. Today trainer at Family Tradinga community of thousands of own-account traders active since 2017. You will find Lives, educational content and mutual assistance around the financial markets in a professional and warm atmosphere.

Focus on derivatives (BTCUSDT)

The BTC/USD liquidation heatmap shows that Bitcoin recently reached the $39,000-$40,000 zone, where many orders were pending. For now, the price appears to be stabilizing in this area, reflecting a period of uncertainty among investors. If the price fails to hold at this level, the next significant liquidation zone below its current price is around $38,000 or even $37,000. As the market approaches this level, we could see a massive triggering of orders, which would potentially increase the volatility of the cryptocurrency. These areas therefore represent major points of interest for investors.

BTC Liquidation Heatmap
BTC Liquidation Heatmap

Hypotheses for the price of Bitcoin (BTC)

If the price of Bitcoin manages to re-enter $40,000, we could anticipate a further increase to the threshold of $45,000. The next resistance to take into account, if the bullish movement continues, would be $49,000 or $50,000. At this stage, this would represent an increase close to +24%.

If the price of Bitcoin fails to re-enter $40,000, we could envisage a return to $38,000. The next level to take into account, if the bearish movement continues, would be around $37,000 or $36,000. At this stage, this would represent a drop close to – 8%.

Conclusion

Bitcoin seems inclined to continue the decline it recently began. Although it is still too early to say that the overall trend is in doubt, it is natural for investors to be concerned and consider hedging against this possibility. Do we owe this agitation to the news surrounding Grayscale? What is certain is that it will be crucial to carefully observe the price reaction at the different key levels to confirm or refute the current hypotheses. It is also important to remain vigilant against potential “fake outs” and “market squeezes” in each scenario. Finally, let us remember that these analyzes are based solely on technical criteria and that the price of cryptocurrencies can also evolve quickly depending on other more fundamental factors.

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