While many analysts bet on a Bitcoin peak in 2025, Bitwise took everyone on the wrong foot. According to its investment director, the real culmination of the cycle could arise in 2026. A questioning of the famous theory of four years linked to Halving, with solid arguments to the key … What if the best was still to come for the BTC?
In short
- Bitwise predicts that 2026 will be the key year of Bitcoin, defying the traditional four -year cycle based on halvings.
- Massive institutional adoption and regulatory clarification replace historical cyclical mechanisms according to Matt Hougan.
- Some analysts remain skeptical and always anticipate a peak in October 2025.
Bitwise claims that the 4 -year -old cycle died and put everything on 2026
Bitwise is not at its first glance. In May 2025, the company had already anticipated a massive influx of $ 420 billion to Bitcoin by 2026.
Last Friday, Matt Hougan, its investment director, again jostled certainties by publishing a striking analysis on X (formerly Twitter).
According to him, The famous Quadrenal Bitcoin cycle belongs to the past. This break with traditional doctrine is based on three fundamental pillars.
First argument: the decreasing impact of halvings. Each reduction by half loses mechanically half of its influence compared to the previous one. This technical phenomenon explains why post-halving increases have been gradually being upset since 2012.
Second factor: the institutional revolution. The Bitcoin Spot ETF have sucked more than $ 30 billion since January 2024. This permanent institutional demand replaces cyclical speculative purchases of yesteryear. Strategy and other corporate giants now accumulate Bitcoin as a strategic reserve.
Third catalyst: the favorable macroeconomic environment. Trump actively pushes Jerome Powell to a drop in guiding rates. This accommodating monetary policy makes obligations and booklets less attractive. Capital naturally migrates to alternative assets like Bitcoin.
Stable growth rather than explosive
Unlike previous cycles, often marked by spectacular increases followed by violent falls, Matt Hougan sees a more measured scenario.
I could be wrong, but I'm sure there will be significant volatility. And I think it will be more of a “stable and supported boom“ than a supercycle.
In other words, no sudden euphoria, but a regular ascent carried by solid fundamentals.
This vision goes against more classic forecasts. Analyst Rekt Capital, for example, believes that a market summit could be reached in October 2025, 550 days after the last halving. This divergence highlights the persistent uncertainty around the timing of the next peak.
For Hougan, strengthening regulation is a key data. According to him, it would have reduced the systemic risks that previously weighed in the sector.
The risk of explosion is attenuated thanks to the improvement of the regulations and the institutionalization of the space.
However, everything is not without risk. Hougan alerts the rise of Bitcoin cash companies, which accumulate BTC via debt or the issue of new actions. In the event of a reversal of the market, these structures could be particularly exposed. Vaneck shares this concern, warning against their fragility in the face of a brutal drop in the price of bitcoin.
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