
The bearish pressure imposed on bitcoin by the GBTC ETF is clearly receding. Is the Bull Run about to resume?
Bitcoin ETF
For the third time in a row, combined inflows from the Fidelity and BlackRock ETFs exceed outflows from the GBTC ETF.
Outflows from the GBTC ETF were just $188 million on Wednesday, January 31 (14 trading days). Knowing that we were around 600 million a week ago.
On the other hand, entries into Fidelity and BlackRock represented nearly $350 million. To which we can add the crumbs collected by the seven other ETFs ($35 million).
Which gives us approximately a $200 million net inflow into ETFs in a single day. That is 4,740 bitcoins representing more than five times the quantity of BTC mined each day (and 10x after the halving in April).
However, it must be taken into account that these entries are only made five days a week. Conversely, bitcoins are mined seven days a week. Furthermore, it is also likely that outflows from the GBTC ETF will sooner or later end up being transformed into inflows into other ETFs.
So much so that on average, since January 11, ETFs have absorbed more than 150,000 bitcoins. Or eight times more than the quantity of bitcoins mined in the same time. It will be 16x from the halving.
Here is an infographic showing the evolution of the quantity of bitcoins absorbed by ETFs:
Here are the largest publicly traded bitcoin holders:
-Grayscale (GBTC ETF): ~500,000 bitcoins
-Microstrategy: ~190,000 bitcoins
-The nine new ETFs: ~ 150,000 bitcoins
-Tether: ~70,000 bitcoins
-Miners: ~40,000 BTC
Let us also note in passing that the respective trading volumes of BlackRock and Fidelity now surpass those of Grayscale.
All that being said, there are nearly 500,000 bitcoins left in the GBTC ETF which still refuses to lower its management fees to eight times the competition. For CEO Michael Sonnenshein, the 1.5% management fee is justified by “size, liquidity and experience” of the GBTC ETF.
In other words, we must not rule out the possibility that other customers decide to leave to compete. This will result in further momentary downward pressure.
To be continued. Hodl!
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