Bitcoin at $100,000 in 2026: Bitwise remains optimistic despite inflation

Can bitcoin reach $100,000 before the end of 2026? Bitwise considers this scenario still possible thanks to institutional demand, while LO forecasts a price of between 85,000 and 95,000 dollars in the face of the return of risks of inflation and rising rates.

The arguments that support a bitcoin at $100,000

Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, maintains a positive outlook despite bitcoin’s decline to around $82,000. He believes that several underlying factors can support the market in the final weeks of 2026.

The analyst summary his scenario in a careful statement:

We believe bitcoin will end the year higher, potentially above $100,000.

This projection is based on several drivers:

• Purchases made by institutional investors via ETFs;
• The accumulation of bitcoins by certain companies;
• The search for scarce assets in the face of inflation;
• The increase in public debts;
• The gradual improvement of the American regulatory framework.

Cryptocurrency investment products have seen about $11.1 billion in inflows since mid-July, according to James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs reportedly received nearly $6 billion in the third quarter, including about $3.5 billion in August.

This demand may reduce the amount of bitcoins available on the market. However, it does not guarantee an immediate increase. Butterfill points out that buying has slowed and a real rebound will require regular institutional inflows.

A move from $82,000 to $100,000 would represent an increase of close to 22%. Such a movement remains possible in a volatile market, but it requires a clear improvement in the financial climate before December 31.

American inflation weakens the bullish scenario

LO adopts a more reserved reading. Adam Morgan McCarthy, head of research at the company, instead anticipates bitcoin moving between $85,000 and $95,000 until the end of the year.

This caution is mainly explained by the latest American data. The consumer price index increased by 0.6% in September compared to August and by 3.7% year-on-year. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year.

The rise in gasoline prices played a major role. This component jumped 9.1% in September and accounted for more than half of the monthly price increase. These figures have reinforced fears of a further tightening of American monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve had already raised its key rate by 25 basis points in September, to a range of 3.75% to 4%. A further increase would make risk-free investments more profitable and reduce the liquidity available for volatile assets like bitcoin.

According to McCarthy, a return of BTC towards $100,000 would require lower oil prices, a slowdown in inflation and a change in expectations regarding the Fed. In particular, the market should abandon the hypothesis of a rate increase in December in favor of a pause.

The $90,000 threshold could revive the market

Derivatives offer a third scenario. Luca Invernizzi, trader at Laser Digital, a subsidiary of Nomura, believes that the recent decline has eliminated some of the most fragile leveraged positions. This purge can make the market more stable if buyers return.

The $90,000 level is now an important technical zone. A sustained breakout could force traders betting on a decline to buy back bitcoin to close their positions. These forced purchases could accelerate the rebound towards $100,000.

Conversely, the absence of new flows into ETFs and persistent inflation would limit this potential. Investors will therefore be watching the Fed’s next decisions, energy prices and institutional inflows.

Bitwise and LO forecasts are not certainties. They describe two trajectories which depend above all on the macroeconomic context. Before aiming for $100,000, bitcoin will first have to return to $90,000 and maintain this level despite rate pressure.