The crypto market is going through a new phase of tension, while prices have remained under pressure for several weeks. In this context, Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies, identifies technical signals that could herald a change in trend. According to his analysis, bitcoin now presents a long-term oversold situation on two indicators monitored by his firm. This combination appears rarely and remains monitored. It could signal the approach of a major low point, rather than just a temporary rebound.
In brief
- Katie Stockton detects a rare long-term oversold situation in Bitcoin.
- The bearish momentum is showing signs of running out of steam despite the pressure on prices.
- Ether may also have reached its major low, according to its technical analysis.
- Bitcoin and ether could provide key clues about a possible cycle change.
A long-term oversold signal
As Grayscale identifies several forces likely to support Bitcoin adoption despite the bear market, Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies, in turn observes an unusual technical signal on two long-term indicators used by her company. Bitcoin is in a measurable oversold situation, while its momentum is also starting to pick up over an extended period.
For the analyst, this combination shows a possible exhaustion of the downward trend established for several months. She therefore believes that the recent technical damage could gradually come to an end.
Her analysis relies on several chart markers, including support levels and Fibonacci retracements. This tool helps identify areas where the price could encounter new demand after a previous fluctuation.
Stockton also uses the Ichimoku cloud model to spot levels likely to favor a reversal. It thus underlines the simultaneous presence of measurable overselling and an improvement in long-term dynamics.
Bitcoin under pressure, but signals are evolving
This reading comes after a tumultuous August for the market’s main assets. Bitcoin’s price has been trading around $63,000 for much of the week, below its 20-, 50-, and 200-day daily moving averages.
At the same time, the Fear and Greed index remains at 34, a level corresponding to the fear zone. The SEC’s stalled work on regulating tokenization also contributes to maintaining a bearish climate.
Despite this pressure, Stockton compares the current configuration to that observed in gold. She notes that the latter recently crossed its 50-day moving average during a pullback. According to his analysis, bitcoin currently has a higher probability of hitting a significant low than gold. It relates this possibility to the magnitude and duration of the decline already recorded.
Ether reinforces the hypothesis of a turning point
Stockton does not, however, limit this bitcoin reading. She also considers that Ether may have already reached its own major critical point, according to her chart analysis. It also includes Solana, XRP and Hyperliquid, to assess the dynamics of crypto assets more broadly. This approach gives a broader scope to the hypothesis of a change in trend after a prolonged bearish period.
The analyst also points out that smaller tokens tend to reach their highest and lowest levels in line with the main assets. Bitcoin and Eher can therefore serve as benchmarks to assess the general health of the market. If both assets actually ended a prolonged phase of decline at the same time, this development would provide an important signal. She would then distinguish a change in cycle from a modest rebound of relief.
In the short term, the evolution of supports, dynamics and oversold indicators will allow this hypothesis to be monitored. The next sessions will show if these technical signals are confirmed or if the bearish pressure persists. The duration of the movement will therefore remain decisive in assessing the scope of the possible major low point.
In this scenario, no indicator is sufficient to confirm a lasting turnaround. Reading depends on continued improvement over the long term. Support levels will remain monitored, as will momentum movements. Stabilization could strengthen this reading, while further deterioration would call the hypothesis into question. The Ether will provide a benchmark. Bitcoin will remain at the center of the analysis.
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