Bitcoin and gold, a strategic duel that divides analysts

The recent fall in gold in a tense geopolitical context disturbs certainties and fuels increasingly lively debates. This movement is surprising, because gold is supposed to prosper when the world falters and benchmarks suddenly collapse. However, bitcoin has not clearly established itself as a dominant alternative, despite its image as a modern asset. Between gold and bitcoin, the lines are moving, and investors' convictions are seriously starting to waver.

Gold and bitcoin do not diverge by chance: a structural divide revealed

First, the divergence between gold and bitcoin is not a simple technical movement or an isolated market reaction. It reflects a deeper divide, directly linked to the nature of the buyers who dominate each asset today.

According to Stephen Coltman, head of macro at 21Shares, gold is majority owned by central banks and governments. Conversely, bitcoin remains largely in the hands of individuals, which completely changes its behavior.

It clearly states:

Physical gold currently plays a more important strategic geopolitical role, as a favored asset of states seeking to store wealth away from rival powers. This means that it reacts more to the deterioration of international relations.

Then, this opposition reveals a brutal reality: gold and bitcoin no longer obey the same rules.

Strategic gold, vital bitcoin: two uses of capital that cannot replace each other

Second, gold and bitcoin do not fulfill the same function in a world where geopolitical tensions dictate financial flows. Gold remains a strategic tool for states, while bitcoin becomes a practical instrument for individuals.

When crises intensify, central banks accumulate gold to preserve their monetary sovereignty and strengthen their position. Conversely, individuals favor bitcoin to maintain direct and immediate access to their capital.

A striking example illustrates this difference in a concrete and difficult to contest manner in recent events. During the strikes in the Middle East, some exchanges closed suddenly, while bitcoin remained accessible without interruption.

Coltman emphasizes this decisive advantage:

Shortly after the conflict began, the stock exchanges in Dubai and Abu Dhabi were both closed following missile and drone strikes from Iran.

Now, bitcoin does not replace gold, it simply meets another need.

Why analysts are divided on the future of the markets

Ultimately, the divide between analysts is explained by profoundly different visions of the global monetary and financial future. Some believe that bitcoin could overtake gold, while others remain committed to gold's dominance.

Economist Lyn Alden believes that bitcoin could outperform gold in the coming years, following a well-known cyclical logic. Conversely, Ray Dalio argues that gold will remain dominant as a global store of value in the financial system.

At the same time, gold is under pressure from high rates, a strong dollar and a persistent inflationary environment. Bitcoin is evolving in a consolidation phase typical of previous cycles.

The key benchmarks of the current duel

• Gold fell more than 11% in a recent week;
• Gold remains near its recent all-time highs;
• Bitcoin is evolving in a classic phase of consolidation;
• BTC remains continuously accessible, even in times of crisis;
• BTC price currently reaches $68,781.

All in all, the current situation does not allow bitcoin supporters to claim victory. Despite some recent resistance, bitcoin is already showing worrying signs of fragility today. After a solid weekend, BTC fell back below $69,000, strongly reviving doubts. In this uncertain context, excess confidence could cost the most enthusiastic investors dearly.