Bitcoin is struggling to capitalize on the latest US economic data. Despite a slowdown in inflation in line with expectations, the leading crypto fell by more than 3% on Wednesday, falling below the $56,000 mark.
An apparently favorable macroeconomic context
The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.5% year-on-year in August, its smallest increase since February 2021. This data, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, confirms a moderation in inflation in line with economists' forecasts.
Paradoxically, this news was not enough to support the Bitcoin price. The flagship crypto thus fell below $56,000, ignoring what could have been seen as a positive signal for risk assets. Traders seem to have already priced these expectations into their positions.
CME Group’s FedWatch tool now reflects an 85% probability of a 0.25% interest rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting on September 18, up from 66% the day before. However, this monetary easing outlook has also failed to reverse Bitcoin’s bearish trend.
A decoupling revealing risk aversion
The analysis platform CryptoQuant highlights in its latest report a worrying phenomenon: the decoupling between Bitcoin and gold.
” A period of negative correlation between Bitcoin and gold, with gold prices rising and Bitcoin falling, typically signals a risk-off environment.” explains the analyst.
This trend is part of a broader context where even the weakening of the dollar is failing to support the Bitcoin price. CryptoQuant interprets this situation as a sign of a ” broader risk aversion or financial stress » in global markets.
Arthur Hayes, former CEO of BitMEX, sheds further light on this paradox. According to him, the anticipated Fed rate cut may actually be a bad omen for Bitcoin. This analysis suggests that investors may be viewing accommodative monetary policy as a sign of economic weakness rather than an investment opportunity.
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