Donald Trump announced on October 11 a “energy truce” immediate relationship between Russia and Ukraine. But kyiv claims to have not been informed of a final agreement, Moscow has not confirmed it and Russian strikes against Ukrainian installations continued after the American declaration.
In brief
- Donald Trump announces an immediate energy truce between Russia and Ukraine, without specifying the terms.
- kyiv says it is in favor of a reciprocal ceasefire, but is awaiting details from Washington.
- Moscow has not confirmed the deal, while Russian strikes against Ukrainian energy facilities continue.
- Bitcoin is progressing above $84,000, but markets remain cautious in the face of diplomatic uncertainties.
Trump announces deal without revealing terms
Donald Trump did not specify the duration of the system, nor the infrastructures concerned, nor the means planned to control its application. The White House did not immediately release a signed document confirming the existence of an agreement concluded with the two belligerents.
The American president has writing on Truth Social:
With immediate effect, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the war between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties agreed. Don’t rape him!
The term “energy truce” can cover several realities. It could mean stopping attacks on refineries, power plants, distribution networks, oil depots or gas pipelines. However, these targets do not have the same strategic importance for Russia and Ukraine.
According to an American official, Washington would first work on a formula limited to refineries. Protection of power plants and electricity networks could be negotiated in a second step. This version therefore differs from the general announcement published by Trump.
Zelensky supports the principle, but still waits for the agreement
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said the announcement was “news” for him. He nevertheless indicated that his country would agree to stop its attacks if Russia made the same commitment.
“Ukraine supports the ceasefire, and it is important that Russia supports it as well. We are waiting for details from the American side”he then clarified.
This response does not confirm the existence of an agreement already concluded. It expresses a conditional acceptance, based on reciprocity and the protection of Ukrainian infrastructure.
kyiv says it is ready to stop its strikes against Russian refineries if Moscow ends attacks targeting its electricity system. This distinction is important: Ukraine now has virtually no functional refining capacity, while Russia operates a vast network of refineries that has become a regular target for Ukrainian drones.
Hours after Trump’s message, Ukraine reported new Russian strikes on its energy facilities, including a power plant in the Kharkiv region. These attacks show that no verifiable cessation of operations had yet come into effect.
Moscow does not confirm the energy truce
Russia had not provided, on the morning of October 12, any public confirmation of its adherence to the truce announced by Washington. This absence prevents us from presenting Trump’s statement as an effective bilateral ceasefire.
This is not the first announcement of this type. In September, the American president had already affirmed that Moscow and kyiv had agreed to no longer attack their respective energy installations. However, the strikes continued on both sides.
A previous partial agreement was also discussed in March 2025 under American mediation. Washington then published separately the results of its exchanges with Russia and Ukraine. The parties were expected to develop enforcement measures, but accusations of violations quickly undermined the process.
The success of a new truce requires a common definition of protected targets, a start date recognized by both camps and an observation mechanism. None of this has yet been made public.
Bitcoin reacts, but the market remains cautious
The markets initially reacted little to Donald Trump’s announcement. Bitcoin and oil remained near their previous levels, a sign that investors were awaiting confirmation from both countries.
BTC then gained more than 1% to around $83,900 after Zelensky’s more favorable statements. Bitcoin was trading above $84,000 on October 12, while the decline in oil helped to temporarily improve risk appetite.
It would nevertheless be excessive to attribute this increase entirely to the possible truce. Cryptos also react to ETF flows, US rate expectations, liquidity and leveraged positions.
A lasting cessation of energy attacks could reduce part of the geopolitical premium on oil and limit inflation risks. This scenario would potentially be favorable for risky assets.
However, the market currently only has an American statement, conditional Ukrainian support and no Russian confirmation. There “energy truce” therefore remains a diplomatic proposal to be implemented, and not an agreement actually applied on the ground.
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