The year 2025 is off to an uncertain start for bitcoin. After reaching a peak at $108,000, the crypto quickly lost ground, and fell back below the symbolic threshold of $100,000. This level, both psychological and strategic, has become a point of fragile balance where buyers and sellers clash. On the one hand, optimists believe that this consolidation phase sets the stage for a new bullish impulse, with the potential for recovery towards record levels. On the other hand, supporters of a bearish scenario anticipate a more marked correction, which could bring BTC back towards $76,000, a level which corresponds to a key support zone. Beyond these contrasting forecasts, several factors are fueling uncertainty. In addition, macroeconomic tensions, including upcoming decisions by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), are adding additional pressure on investors. Faced with this uncertain climate, the coming weeks promise to be crucial for bitcoin. The outcome of this $100,000 battle could well dictate the market trend for the rest of the year.
Bitcoin facing a decisive threshold
Bitcoin finds itself at a strategic crossroads, where the $100,000 mark serves as a major test for market dynamics. This key level, both psychological and technical, concentrates significant liquidity, which makes price movements particularly unstable. According to CoinGlass, this accumulation of positions could lead to a short squeeze, which would trigger a sudden price movement. “Lots of liquidity at $100,000,” noted the analysis platform. It thus underlines the importance of this threshold in the current battle between buyers and sellers.
Technical signals reinforce this uncertainty. For some observers, this level constitutes a decisive pivot for the continuation of the upward trend. SuperBro, in a publication dated January 6, 2025 on X (formerly Twitter), reminds that bitcoin is approaching its 10-week moving average, an indicator that in the past has often preceded sharp gains. In contrast, Keith Alan, co-founder of Monitoring Resource Material Indicators, is more cautious. He warns that if BTC were to fall below its 21-day moving average, a corrective move could begin, which would bring the price back towards $76,000, a key support zone.
In this technical battle, some experts believe that the bullish potential of bitcoin remains intact. Aksel Kibar, market analyst at Tech Charts, discusses the formation of a cup & handle pattern, a chart pattern that generally heralds bullish acceleration. “The long-term price chart of BTC/USD with a cup & handle pattern indicates a price target (conservative measure) at $137,000,” precisehe said in a publication dated January 6, 2025 on X.
The market thus oscillates between hope of a new upward impulse and the risk of a deep correction. Additionally, the ability of buyers to hold BTC above critical levels will determine whether the optimistic scenario takes over or whether the market begins a deeper pullback.
A macroeconomic context that confuses the issue
If technical factors directly influence the price of bitcoin, the macroeconomic context also plays a key role in market developments. Expectations for an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) have gradually faded, changing investors' expectations. According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 0.25% cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting has fallen to 9.1%, well below market expectations. This situation increases the risk of stagflation, a feared phenomenon where economic growth slows while inflation and unemployment rise simultaneously.
Despite this monetary tightening, certain indicators suggest a possible change of course. American bank reserves fell by $326 billion, reaching their lowest level since October 2020. This massive drop raises questions about the ability of the banking system to absorb such a shock. Some observers see this as a harbinger of an easing of liquidity policies, which could encourage the Fed to slow down its quantitative tightening (QT) program. If this scenario materializes, an influx of capital into financial markets could fuel demand for risky assets, including bitcoin.
In this uncertain environment, individual investors seem to have taken a step back. According to CryptoQuant, the variation in retail transactions fell by 16% over the last few weeks. Historically, such a decline often coincides with attractive entry points for institutional investors, who take advantage of these periods of general public disengagement to strengthen their positions. The evolution of this dynamic could play a crucial role in the next phase of the bitcoin market.
The next few days promise to be decisive for the evolution of bitcoin. Indeed, the $100,000 threshold remains a tipping point, the outcome of which could define the trajectory of the market for months to come. If buyers manage to defend this level and restart the upward momentum, some technical models, such as the cup & handle pattern, suggest upside potential towards $137,000. Conversely, a break below $96,000 would reinforce fears of a deeper correction, with a possible return towards $76,000, where there is a key support zone. Between the accumulation of liquidity in the markets, macroeconomic uncertainties and divergences in analysis, the year 2025 could be one of the most volatile in the history of bitcoin. The market's ability to absorb external shocks and maintain solid buying pressure will be crucial for the continuation of the upward cycle.
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