According to the latest on-chain data, 92 % of Bitcoin's offer is now in profit. A figure which testifies to the vigor of the market … but which also marks a potentially delicate turning point. Historically, this level has preceded both flights and brutal corrections. While the euphoria is gaining ground, several indicators indicate that the market could wave.
In short
- 92 % of Bitcoin holders are currently in profit, a historic threshold which reflects a strong market dynamic.
- Such a level of profitability has often preceded prolonged upward phases, but also sudden corrections due to massive profits.
- The liquidity flows on the exchanges reflect an increasing uncertainty, with a positive Netflow of $ 39.13 million indicating potential pressure for sale.
- The market remains undecided, shared between optimism fueled by gains and increasing tension linked to the weakening of structural indicators.
A bitcoin market largely in profit … for the moment
While many analysts wonder where Bitcoin will stop, the percentage of the supply currently in profit has climbed 92 % according to cryptocurrency data.
In other words, 92 % of the supply in circulation is held at a price lower than that of the current market, placing a large majority of investors in a beneficiary position.
This threshold constitutes a historical reference. When it has been reached in the past, it has often preceded extensions of bullish rallies. However, this configuration is not without risk, because it also coincides with euphoria peaks followed by massive profits phases.
To better understand what this profitability rate of 92 %means concretely, here is some indicators ::
- Many winning investors: the vast majority of current holders are in green, which reflects a largely upward market dynamic;
- A precedent history of prolonged increases: this level of profitability was observed in previous Bull Run cycles, where the market continued to progress after exceeding 90 %;
- An increased risk of sale: when too many investors are in profit, the risk of profits is mechanically strengthening;
- Directional uncertainty: the market could branch out in one direction as in the other according to psychological arbitrations between greed and prudence.
Technical signals that crack upward confidence
Behind this exceptional profitability, some structural indicators reflect a disturbing shortness of breath. The network Value to Metcalfe Ratio (NVM), which measures the valuation of Bitcoin compared to the activity of its network, fell by 4.54 %.
This decline suggests that the price of the BTC could evolve out of step with the fundamentals of the network. Historically, such differences have often preceded periods of stagnation, even withdrawal phases. This drop in NVM therefore indicates a certain dislocation between the euphoria of the market and the reality of the use of the protocol.
In addition, there is the vertiginous fall of 42.86 % of the stock-to-flow ratio, a popular model supposed to assess the rarity of bitcoin by crossing the mass in circulation with the rate of emission. Although criticized for several years, especially for its too great rigidity, this model retains a symbolic weight in crypto analysis.
In parallel, the inbound net flows on the exchanges reach +39.13 million dollars, reflecting potential sales pressure. At this point, the market seems to be wedged between contradictory signals, without clear direction.
These technical elements, taken in isolation, are not enough to announce a brutal reversal. However, their convergence could reveal a weakening of the bullish dynamics of Bitcoin. The combination of a declining NVM, a weakened stock-to-flow and liquidity under tension shows that the robustness of the current rally is based on a weakened base.
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