Tuesday morning, François Bayrou launched a crucial conference on public finances to warn the French: the country is at a turning point. The government must find 40 billion euros in savings by 2026 to avoid a crisis. But these measures may displease, especially with a fractured parliament. Between the need for urgent reforms and the threat of a motion of censorship, Bayrou is at the heart of a delicate political game. The stakes are high, and the debates are just beginning.
A healthy France: the race against the clock to avoid the disaster
France crosses a budgetary crisis which becomes more and more unbearable, while its central bank shows a loss of 17.7 billion euros in 2024. Faced with these uncertainties, some French people are beginning to take an interest in financial alternatives such as Bitcoin, perceived by many as protection in the face of the instability of Fiat currencies. François Bayrou said it, at the conference of April 15: the situation of public finances is irreversible if no measure is taken. Indeed, The interest of the debt will brush the 62 billion euros this yearan amount equivalent to the annual defense and education expenses, excluding pensions.
And this is only the beginning. If nothing changes, This figure could reach 100 billion by 2029.
Faced with this threat, the government is attacking its budget deficit which reaches 5.8 % of GDPwell above the 3 % required by the European Union. The objective is to bring this deficit back to 4.6 % by 2025. But to get there, discounts of expenditure is inevitable.
Bayrou's action plan includes Cups in social expensesin particular the tax advantages of retirees and sick leave. Measures that risk making waves, especially among the most vulnerable voters.
Work at the center of strategy: but at what cost?
One of the main solutions advanced by the Prime Minister is clear: working more. France suffers from an overly low activity rate compared to its European neighbors. Bayrou said it:
We don't work enough.
If productivity per capita was at the level of that of Germany, France would no longer have a deficit. But how to encourage this increase in productivity in a country where the employment rate of seniors is low And where do sickness stop exploding since the COVVI-19 crisis?
To achieve this, the government proposes several reformsincluding the simplification of labor law and the restructuring of the social model. The Minister of Labor, Astrid Panosyan-Bouvet, spoke of the need to rethink access to employment and strengthen vocational training.
But this desire to increase the quantity of work raises questions about the balance between economic performance and social justice. Because who will really accept to work more without seeing the real benefits?
When I hear Bayrou's words, it's a crazy guy! It's an insult … if they want a civil war, they will end up having it by dint of making these words!
Political tensions and parliamentary uncertainty: Bayrou on the wire of the razor
Despite the urgency of the situation, the Prime Minister must Composing with a fractured parliament. After the legislative elections lost by Macron last summer, the National Assembly was dominated by divided political blocks. Bayrou may meet Faced with a censorship motion If the opposition is too firmly opposed to its project to reduce public spending.
The national rally of Marine Le Pen has already said that he would not hesitate to overthrow the government if the budget weighs too much on the popular classes. Likewise, unions are likely to react strongly to new proposals, in particular those concerning reductions in social expenditure.
Who does Bayrou ask for? To workers, nursing staff, teachers? The real idlers are the richest in our country!
The challenge is therefore double for Bayrou : succeed in imposing reforms while avoiding a political crisis.
The future debates will therefore be decisive. The government has hired UDo not race against the clockbut the result of this battle will largely depend on the position of the opposition and the unions. If the latter reject the reforms, the outcome could be catastrophic, leading to an even deeper political crisis.
Essential points
- 40 billion euros must be saved by 2026 for reduce budgetary;
- THE budget deficit of France affected 5.8 % GDP, well above 3 % required by the EU;
- François Bayrou relies on the work as a solution to fill the deficitbut social resistance is strong;
- Political tensions are growing, with censorship motions potential;
- The government will have to find a compromise between reform And social acceptance To avoid a crisis.
France, which risks a historic recession, is at a turning point. If tax and social reforms are necessary to avoid a budgetary disaster, they may cause political blocking. François Bayrou is on the razor thread, between necessary reductions and popular reactions. Time is running out, and the political battle is just beginning. The future of the country will depend on the government's ability to bring its reforms.
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