Analyst expects Bitcoin to fall towards $57,000

Bitcoin is progressing, but the market remains under tension. Despite a rebound of more than 29% since February, several analysts anticipate a new phase of decline. In their sights, a precise level: $57,000, identified as a possible low point in the cycle. Between reading of past cycles, technical signals and uncertain macroeconomic environment, projections converge towards a correction scenario.

A historic cycle that points towards a floor at $57,000

According to investor Michael Terpin, bitcoin could bottom out around $57,000 by October 2026, building on a repeat of previous cycles. The analysis is based on a well-identified temporality: approximately one year historically separates the peak of a cycle from its low point.

After a high recorded in October 2025 above $126,000, this projection is part of a logic of delayed correction. Terpin remains measured on the immediate prospects. He asserts : “Bitcoin could reach $100,000 this year, but this scenario remains unlikely”.

Here are some key elements:

• Bitcoin is currently trading around $77,000 after a rebound of more than 29% since February;
• A return to $100,000 remains unlikely without major catalysts;
• Technical levels monitored include $73,000 then $65,710 on rejection;
• The market consensus anticipates a new bearish phase between now and October.

This reading is shared by other analysts. Matthew Hyland evokes a scenario of gradual correction, estimating that “the scenario mostly anticipated by the consensus for bitcoin remains a further decline by October”.

This convergence of analyzes highlights a market that is still fragile despite its recent rebound.

Between macroeconomic tensions and lack of euphoria

Beyond historical patterns, several external factors weigh on market dynamics. Continued high rates in the United States, combined with an uncertain geopolitical environment, limit the flow of liquidity into risky assets.

In this climate, even the positive flows recorded by bitcoin ETFs are not enough to trigger a real phase of euphoria. Market sentiment remains measured, as evidenced by a Fear & Greed index back in the neutral zone. This lack of enthusiasm is seen by some analysts as a signal revealing a cycle that is still incomplete.

Other voices bring a different, longer-term perspective. Analyst Peter Brandt envisages a low point located between September and October 2026, followed by a potential significant upward movement, with targets between $300,000 and $500,000. This scenario suggests a purge phase before a major expansion, inserting the current movement into a logic of consolidation rather than a definitive reversal.

In this environment, the bitcoin market is dependent on several key variables: macroeconomic conditions, institutional flows and investor psychology. If the $57,000 scenario is confirmed, it could mark a pivotal stage before a new cycle. Conversely, a faster recovery towards current highs would depend on a massive return of liquidity and confidence, two elements still uncertain at this stage.