After a disastrous start to the year, here are 4 reasons to believe in a crypto rebound from this quarter

Against all expectations, the cryptos market started 2025 withdraw, which took short investors. Bitcoin and ether, usually carrying in the first quarter, recorded their worst historical performance over this period. This brutal reversal, breaking with the known seasonal dynamics, relaunches the debates on a possible rebound in the second quarter, while economic uncertainties weigh on all risky assets.

A counterattack start of the year for Bitcoin and Ether

Bitcoin and Ether, the two main cryptos in terms of capitalization, fell 11.82 % and 45.41 % respectively in the first quarter of 2025.

This decline contrasts with their historical performance over this period. Since 2013, the first quarter represents on average the second best quarter for Bitcoin (+51.2 %) and the best for Ether (+77.4 %) according to Coinglass data.

Matt Hougan, director of investments at Bitwise, did not chew his words: “Frustrating. This is the word that best describes the past quarter». He even describes the period of “best worst quarter in the history of crypto».

According to the analysis published By Bitwise, several elements have weighed on the performance of cryptos in recent months:

• The impact of American economic policies, in particular the tariff measures adopted by President Donald Trump, who generated trade tensions and macroeconomic instability;
• The prudence of institutional investors, uncertain about the management that the markets will take in the face of a possible global recession;
• The lack of positive catalysts, despite the initial enthusiasm that surrounded the launch of the Bitcoin ETF, was not enough to maintain the momentum of the market;
• A correction effect linked to the important increases recorded at the end of 2024, which caused a natural rebalancing of the wallets.

Return signals are emerging for the second trimester

Despite this difficult start, several indicators could reverse the trend in the second quarter. Thus, Matt Hougan identifies four factors likely to feed a recovery.

First of all, the expansion of the global money supply, with central banks increasingly inclined to adopt flexible policies, could promote risky assets.

“”Historically, these conditions were favorable to cryptosHe says. This analysis is shared by Pav Hundal, principal analyst at Swyftx, who recalled in February that “Global recovery measures are normally a reliable indicator for crypto».

A second lever is identified on the regulatory side. Hougan evokes a “Pro-Crypto regulatory clarification»In progress in the United States. In addition, he believes that it is a undervalued turning point, but carrying for the ecosystem.

In parallel, the constant progression of the stablecoins is another encouraging element, because the assets under management in this segment have crossed a historic record. They exceeded $ 218 million in the first quarter.

This dynamism is perceived as a catalyst for related sectors such as DEFI. Finally, the trend of investors to reassess their portfolios in the face of current uncertainties could strengthen the attraction for cryptos.

While Matt Hougan maintains his daring prediction of a Bitcoin $ 200,000 by the end of the year, he underlines that the potential reversal “is not yet started, but could intervene quickly when the feeling will be reversed». For the time being, the second quarter promises to be a potential turning point, scrutinized closely by analysts and investors, in a context increasingly influenced by complex macroeconomic and political dynamics.