After 18 days in a zone of extreme fear, the crypto market is showing a first sign of calm. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is rising slightly, finally leaving its lowest level. This surge comes as November, traditionally favorable to bitcoin, ends in uncertainty.
In brief
- The Crypto Fear & Greed Index is finally moving out of the extreme fear zone after 18 consecutive days of market panic.
- This change occurs in a paradoxical context: November is historically a bullish month for Bitcoin.
- Several analysts point out that phases of extreme fear have often marked local low points in BTC.
- Despite this improvement, recovery signals remain fragile according to social and technical indicators.
The Fear & Greed Index emerges from extreme fear: a thrill after 18 days of tension
On November 23, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index left the extreme fear zone for the first time in 18 consecutive days, reaching a score of 28.
This move into the fear zone marks a modest but significant inflection in the mood of the markets, which had been lastingly marked by persistent panic since November 10.
Over the course of these eighteen days, several recognized voices in the crypto community have expressed their concern about the intensity of the ambient pessimism:
- On November 15, analyst Matthew Hyland emphasized that the index was at “his most extreme level of fear of the entire cycle”;
- November 23, Crypto Seth affirmed that “extreme fear is an understatement”reflecting the psychological sinking of the market;
- Trader Nicola Duke recalled that phases of extreme fear have often coincided with bitcoin corrections, suggesting that a low point may have been reached.
These observations are based on a historical reading of previous phases of extreme fear, often correlated with bullish market reversals. However, in the current context marked by persistent macroeconomic uncertainties, this end to extreme fear could just as much reflect a simple respite as a real signal of a turnaround.
Signals still hesitant despite an apparent improvement
On November 27, the Santiment analysis platform observed a generally bullish trend on social networks regarding bitcoin, justified by a rise in the price to nearly $92,000.
This dynamic, mainly fueled by online discussions, reflects more of an emotional reaction to price variations than a fundamental change in perception about market prospects.
However, the reality of capital flows and distribution in the crypto ecosystem does not yet confirm this resurgence of confidence. Indeed, the market clearly remains in “Bitcoin Season”with a score of 22 out of 100, indicating a clear preference for BTC and a persistent disaffection for altcoins.
This concentration of capital reveals a defensive posture of investors, typical of market phases dominated by uncertainty. In this regard, André Dragosch, director of research at Bitwise Europe, warned of a poor reading of the macroeconomic context, pointing in particular to fears linked to an imminent recession. “The last time I saw such an imbalance between risk and return was during COVID”he declared.
The return to a less alarmist feeling does not dispel the uncertainties. If the climate calms down, the market remains volatile. The price of bitcoin remains the key indicator: its ability to hold, or even rebound, will tell whether this lull marks a real turning point or a simple break in tension.
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