Is history about to repeat itself in the crypto market? Just a few hours before the official opening of polling stations for the mid-term elections in the United States, investor excitement is reaching its peak. While bitcoin has just aligned a rare series of bearish weekly closes, the memory of the violent fall suffered during the 2022 election is resurfacing. The market is holding its breath.
In brief
- Bitcoin has just recorded 4 consecutive weekly candles in the red, undermining the dynamics of the ongoing bull run.
- The numerical analyzes recall past corrections of -51.67% in 2018 and -25.24% in 2022 following the American mid-term elections.
- Recognized figures in the crypto ecosystem are calling for absolute caution in the face of the imminent explosion of volatility.
Bitcoin has been in the red for 4 weeks… A bad omen?
The month of November opens with palpable nervousness on the order books, notably with the Mercado Bitcoin hack. In terms of technical analysis, analyst Ted Pillows points out a major anomaly, bitcoin closed 4 consecutive weekly candles in the red.
Historically, since 2011, BTC has never chained five successive weekly downward candles at the heart of a real bullish cycle. This configuration puts the market against the wall, especially on this decisive day when the mid-term elections are taking place. To validate the continuation of the underlying trend, the current weekly candle must imperatively reverse the trajectory to return to green.
Midterm elections, what do the BTC figures say?
Beyond the graphic indicators, it is the major political event in the United States that is focusing all the attention on Tuesday, November 3. Today’s midterm elections historically act as catalysts for macroeconomic turbulence for risky assets like bitcoin. Historical data shared by market experts show corrections of unprecedented brutality during previous elections.
| Voting year | Context and numerical correction observed |
| 2018 | Massive post-election correction reaching -51.67% over the following weeks. |
| 2022 | Sudden drop of -25.24% (or -24%) recorded in the wake of the votes. |
| 2026 | Bitcoin is approaching the deadline under the technical pressure of 4 consecutive weeks of decline. |
Analyst Ted Pillows warns of the volatility surrounding this particular day:
The US midterm elections are tomorrow. In 2018, Bitcoin fell -51.67% and -25.24% in 2022 after the election. Will Bitcoin fall again or is it different this time?
Bitcoin and the thresholds of survival in the face of the electoral shock in the United States
Faced with this climate of widespread anxiety, the market structure is no longer based solely on retail speculation. The resistance of bitcoin (currently around the $77,500 to $78,000 zone) now depends largely on the absorption capacity of institutional players and the flows recorded on spot ETFs.
However, the pressure is palpable. Recent panic movements have caused massive outflows on US spot ETFs, accentuating the fragility of order books. If buyer volumes fail to defend these immediate support zones around $76,400 in the face of the macroeconomic shock of the midterm elections, the prophecy of a brutal bitcoin correction modeled on the 2018 and 2022 cycles could quickly materialize today.
Caught between a weekly technical signal weakened by four weeks of decline and the historic heaviness of American electoral cycles, bitcoin is entering a zone of critical turbulence. In your opinion, will BTC manage to defy the statistics or will these mid-term elections get the better of the asset?
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