US spot Bitcoin ETFs are finding buyers after several weeks of capital outflows. In three sessions, they attracted 1.07 billion dollars, thus erasing the losses recorded since the beginning of October. However, this resumption of investments is not enough to support prices. The market remains under pressure as investors monitor the Federal Reserve’s next moves. This discrepancy questions the strength of the current rebound.
In brief
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs attract $1.07 billion in three sessions.
- Capital inflows erase October’s losses and bring the monthly balance sheet to +$460 million.
- Bitcoin falls to $81,470 despite investors returning to ETFs.
- The next Fed meeting, scheduled for October 27-28, could influence the crypto market trend.
Bitcoin ETFs Recover October Losses Thanks to $1.07 Billion
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $524.8 million in inflows on Wednesday. This result continues a positive series started on Monday, which totals around 1.07 billion dollars in three sessions. Thanks to these new investments, the funds have reversed their monthly balance sheet. They now show a net gain of about $460 million in October.
This development marks a turnaround after several difficult days for fund managers. Through the previous Friday, ETFs had lost nearly $615 million month to date. Cumulative outflows from the previous two weeks even reached around $910 million. The return of capital therefore made it possible to offset a large part of this decline.
As of Monday, the funds had already collected $526.7 million, their best performance since September 22. All of this sum came from IBIT, BlackRock’s fund dedicated to Bitcoin. Since its launch, this product has helped increase cumulative ETF net inflows to $58.4 billion. The combined funds now hold $100.8 billion in net assets.
This renewed interest comes as some Wall Street players maintain a favorable long-term outlook. This week, JP Morgan Asset Management published its first long-term forecasts for this asset. The establishment anticipates a compound annual return of 10% over the next ten to fifteen years. However, he highlights a volatility of 55%, which recalls the risks linked to market variations.
The price of Bitcoin falls despite the return of capital
Despite these massive inflows, the price of bitcoin has not followed the same trajectory. On Thursday, the main cryptocurrency was trading around $81,470, a drop of 2.4% over twenty-four hours. It nevertheless maintained an increase of 2% over seven days. This decline comes after a weekly peak near $85,000 reached the day before.
Ethereum is also having a rough session, falling 2.6% to around $2,393. At the same time, the total crypto market capitalization decreased by 2.9%, reaching $2.84 trillion. Zcash is among the most affected assets in the top 10, with a drop of 5.6%. The cryptocurrency, however, still shows an increase of close to 14% over one week.
Prediction market data also reflects a certain caution regarding the next evolution of bitcoin. On Myriadtraders estimate the probability of exceeding $87,500 before the end of October at 20%. They only give a 9% chance of progressing to $90,000. Conversely, they estimate the risk ofa drop towards 77,500 dollars, after a temporary drop below 80,000 dollars the previous week.
Expectations regarding Ethereum present a different profile. On Myriad, users give a 61.3% chance that ETH will reach $3,000 before falling to $1,500. These estimates reflect the expectations of participants in this prediction market, without guaranteeing future price developments. The contrast between ETF flows and prices shows that institutional purchases do not always cause an immediate increase.
The Fed and the outlook for the crypto market remain at the center of expectations
Ethereum ETFs also returned to inflows on Wednesday. They raised $14.9 millionending five consecutive outing sessions. During this period, withdrawals reached approximately $389 million. Despite this improvement, their monthly balance sheet remains largely negative, with a deficit of around $1.07 billion in October.
Since their launch, however, these funds have accumulated $12.8 billion in net inflows. Their recent recovery therefore remains limited compared to the outflows recorded during the month. This situation contrasts with that of Bitcoin ETFs, which managed to return to a positive balance. Investors are now watching whether new entries can be maintained over the next few sessions.
The next meeting of the US Federal Reserve is among the main events to watch. Scheduled for October 27 and 28, it could influence investors’ expectations regarding interest rates. The persistence of inflation notably maintains the possibility of a further increase in rates. In this context, risky assets could remain sensitive to monetary policy announcements.
In the short term, the evolution of bitcoin will depend in particular on the ability of ETFs to maintain their inflows and the return of buyers to the spot market. Continued investments could help stabilize prices, without guaranteeing a new upward movement. Conversely, new outflows or rate-related concerns could accentuate the current pressure. The next sessions and the Fed’s decisions will make it possible to better assess the solidity of this resumption of flows.
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