XRP is trying to preserve the $1.30 threshold after several sessions of decline, while futures open interest remains below $3 billion. The decline in leverage reduces the risk of cascading liquidations, but it does not yet confirm a lasting return of buyers.
In brief
- XRP is trying to stay above $1.30 after several sessions of decline.
- Open interest on futures contracts falls below $3 billion, a sign of trader disengagement.
- Reducing leverage limits the risks of liquidations, without guaranteeing a lasting recovery.
- Sellers maintain the advantage, while US XRP ETF flows show signs of weakness.
- A breach of $1.35 could encourage a rebound, but a fall below $1.27 would expose XRP to a return towards $1.20.
XRP finds fragile support around $1.30
Ripple’s token was trading near $1.31 on October 19, up about 1% over 24 hours, but still down nearly 7% over a week. It briefly touched $1.27 before returning above the psychological threshold of $1.30.
The main levels to watch draw a narrow range:
- Immediate support lies between $1.27 and $1.30;
- A break could send the price towards 1.25, then 1.20 dollars;
- The first resistance is between $1.32 and $1.35;
- A crossing of $1.35 would open a test of the $1.39 to $1.40 zone;
- The level of “max bread” October 23 options are near $1.26.
On the hourly chart, several attempts to recover above $1.30 lacked volume. A firm close above $1.32 would improve the short-term structure, but XRP remains below several important moving averages.
The 100-day exponential moving average sits near $1.34. Those at 20 and 50 days move around 1.39 to 1.41 dollars. These levels may attract selling from traders looking to exit after the recent correction.
Analyst Vuori Trading estimated that the $1.30 to $1.32 area continues to play a central role.
He declared:
The support at $1.30 to $1.32 still holds. $1.39 is the next logical level.
The brief passage below this zone on Sunday, however, requires confirmation before talking about recovery.
Decline in open interest reflects disengagement
Open interest measures the value of futures contracts that have not yet been closed. It does not allow us to know whether the operators are predominantly bullish or bearish, because each contract associates a buyer and a seller. Its evolution nevertheless indicates whether the lever enters or exits the market.
An initial conclusion drawn on October 18 put XRP open interest at $2.77 billion, down 1.32% over 24 hours. The updated data then placed it near $2.86 billion, for about $2.14 billion in daily futures volume.
The figure of 2.77 billion therefore does not constitute a fixed level. It corresponds to a precise moment in a market which is constantly evolving. The general trend nevertheless remains oriented towards a reduction in positions compared to the 3.1 billion observed a week earlier.
On Binance and Bybit, open interest reportedly fell by 26.5% between September 23 and October 16. At the same time, the estimated leverage ratio on Binance increased from around 0.23 to 0.17.
When price and open interest fall together, traders typically close existing positions or experience liquidations. This pattern differs from a decline accompanied by an increase in open interest, which would signal the arrival of new short sellers.
Deleveraging can therefore clean up the market. It reduces the number of fragile positions likely to be liquidated during a sudden move. However, it does not automatically create a new cash demand.
Sellers maintain the advantage despite a possible rebound
The ratio between immediately executed buys and sells stood at 0.883 on October 18. A value less than 1 indicates that aggressive sellers still dominated trading. A sustainable return above 1 would provide a first signal of rebalancing.
The options present a more nuanced reading. The put/call volume ratio has exceeded 1, reflecting more activity on bearish options. However, purchase options remain the majority in all contracts still open.
Predictive markets also reflect cautious sentiment. Polymarket users assigned around a 50% probability that XRP would rise to $1.20 before November. This estimate results from participants’ positions and constitutes neither a fundamental analysis nor a reliable price forecast.
The institutional market provides little immediate support. US XRP ETFs saw nearly $1.84 million in weekly outflows, ending thirteen consecutive weeks of inflows. This amount remains small compared to their outstanding assets of close to $1.47 billion, but it interrupts a regular source of demand.
The decline in leverage and certain oversold indicators can favor a technical rebound. To turn this movement into a credible recovery, XRP will need to regain $1.35 with a simultaneous increase in spot volumes. Below $1.27, the risk of a return to $1.20 would once again become dominant.
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