Elon Musk says he sees a trajectory that would allow SpaceX to be worth several times the current global economy. The entrepreneur himself recognizes the highly speculative nature of this hypothesis, greeted by optimism from Michael Saylor.
In brief
- Elon Musk envisions a valuation of SpaceX greater than several times the global economy, while recognizing the speculative nature of this scenario.
- This ambition is based on the development of orbital artificial intelligence, space solar energy and lunar industries.
- Many technical and financial obstacles still make this vision difficult to realize.
- Michael Saylor welcomes this projection with optimism and gives a nod to bitcoin, without announcing any new investment.
Elon Musk imagines SpaceX beyond the global economy
Elon Musk wrote on October 8 on X:
This is going to sound crazy, but I see a path for SpaceX to be worth several orders of magnitude more than the current Earth economy.
The expression “several orders of magnitude” assumes a multiplication of at least a hundred. The International Monetary Fund estimates global gross domestic product at around $126.3 trillion in 2026. A literal interpretation of Musk’s remarks would therefore place SpaceX’s potential value beyond $12 trillion.
The leader then gave a lower benchmark, but still dizzying. A valuation greater than 1000 billion billion dollars, or 1000 trillion in English, now seems to be one of the possible results.
“A value greater than 1000 trillion dollars now seems to me to belong to the set of possible outcomes, whereas before I thought that was not the case”did he specified.
Musk, however, does not present this amount as a financial goal or a forecast. “Seeing a path is not a statement of extreme confidence in our ability to achieve that outcome”he added. He only believes that this probability is no longer zero.
Comparing SpaceX’s value to global GDP remains misleading
The comparison strikes the mind, but it brings together two indicators of a different nature. The capitalization of a company represents the value that investors attribute to all of its shares at a given time. GDP measures the production of goods and services over a year.
A company can therefore theoretically be worth more than the annual GDP of a country without possessing wealth equivalent to its entire economy. Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia have already reached capitalizations greater than the annual production of many states.
The gap nevertheless remains colossal. SpaceX is currently worth around $2.2 trillion on the stock market, after its listing on the Nasdaq in June. The company thus represents less than 2% of global GDP estimated for 2026.
To exceed 1000 trillion dollars, its capitalization would have to be multiplied by more than 450. It would have to progress even further to correspond to the strict interpretation of the “several orders of magnitude” mentioned by Musk.
No conventional financial model today can justify such a value based on SpaceX’s revenues, profits or existing activities.
Orbital AI and solar power carry this scenario
Musk’s vision isn’t just about rocket launches or Starlink subscriptions. It involves the creation of an industrial economy outside of Earth, with computing centers powered by solar energy in space.
Satellites could host chips dedicated to artificial intelligence. In space, solar panels benefit from more regular sunlight and avoid certain constraints of terrestrial data centers, notably land availability and access to the electricity grid.
The realization of this project would first depend on a significant reduction in launch costs. Starship is expected to quickly become fully reusable in order to transport immense quantities of material into orbit.
Musk then imagines production on the Moon of solar panels, radiators and satellites. Low lunar gravity would reduce the energy requirements to send this equipment into space.
However, this scenario combines technical, financial and regulatory obstacles. Orbital infrastructure maintenance, data transmission, component cooling and space debris remain major problems. The lunar industries described by Musk do not yet exist on a commercial scale.
Michael Saylor symbolically links bitcoin
Michael Saylor responded to Musk’s message with one word: “₿ullish”. The executive chairman of Strategy replaced the first letter of “bullish” by the symbol of bitcoin, without explaining how SpaceX’s expansion would directly benefit crypto.
This nod reminds us that SpaceX itself holds bitcoin. As of June 30, the company reported owning 18,712 BTC, acquired for $661 million and valued at nearly 1.1 billion on that date.
Saylor has long defended the idea that a spectacular development of the digital economy will increase demand for a rare asset independent of national currencies. His reaction nevertheless amounts to symbolic approval, not an investment announcement from SpaceX.
Elon Musk’s projection ultimately describes a still hypothetical multiplanetary future. It provides more information on the scale of its industrial ambitions than on the financial value that SpaceX can reasonably achieve today.
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