Traders have concentrated $4.5 billion in options to call bitcoin between $90,000 and $100,000, with an October 30 expiration. This accumulation reflects a renewed interest in an increase in BTC, without however constituting a unanimous market forecast.
In brief
- Traders are concentrating $4.5 billion in call options on Bitcoin, expiring on October 30.
- The main targets are at $90,000, $95,000 and $100,000, with a heavy concentration at $95,000.
- These amounts represent the notional value of the contracts, and not the amounts actually invested.
- Despite traders’ optimism, the $78,000 level remains a signal of caution.
- Without sufficient Bitcoin upside, many options could expire worthless on October 30.
Traders target three price levels for bitcoin
Bitcoin is trading around $83,000, after regaining some of the ground lost at the start of the month. In the options market, call contracts, or “calls”now represent 60.24% of open interest, compared to 39.76% for puts.
The October 30 deadline concentrates a large part of these positions. Deribit, the main platform in the sector, records notably the equivalent of 25,030 BTC on call options set at $95,000. Their notional value is approaching $2.07 billion.
Three strike prices currently dominate this deadline:
- About $1.26 billion in call options at $90,000;
- Nearly $2.07 billion positioned at $95,000;
- About $1.20 billion concentrated at $100,000;
- In total, almost 54,750 BTC, or $4.53 billion in notional value.
The threshold of $95,000 therefore constitutes the main point of concentration. To reach it, bitcoin would have to rise by around 14% from its current price before contract settlement.
This configuration seems to favor a bullish scenario. However, it does not mean that $4.5 billion was actually invested to bet on a rise in BTC.
A notional value which does not correspond to the sums committed
The value of $4.5 billion corresponds to the notional amount of the contracts. It is obtained by multiplying the number of bitcoins represented by the options by the price of the asset. Investors only pay a premium to buy these contracts, usually much lower than their notional value.
Open interest also does not specify the strategy of each stakeholder. A call option always involves a buyer and a seller. Some traders may anticipate a rise in bitcoin, while others sell the same contracts because they believe the price will remain below their strike price.
Investors also combine several options to form complex strategies. An operator can, for example, buy a call at $90,000 and sell another at $95,000 in order to limit its cost and potential gain. Others use these products to hedge an existing position.
The dominance of calls therefore constitutes an index of sentiment, not proof that the entire market expects bitcoin to reach $95,000. The volume observed over the last 24 hours also shows a tighter balance: 54.02% for call options compared to 45.98% for put options.
The $78,000 level remains a risk for the expiration
The price of “maximum pain” of the October 30 deadline is around $78,000 on Deribit. This level corresponds to the price at which the total amount paid to option holders would theoretically be lowest upon settlement.
On Binance and OKX, this point is rather between 81,000 and 82,000 dollars. It therefore remains below the current price of bitcoin and clearly far from positions concentrated between 90,000 and 100,000 dollars.
Maximum pain, however, is not a prediction. It changes with the opening and closing of positions. In a market heavily dominated by calls, its level may also remain mechanically lower than the price of bitcoin.
Futures contracts are finally delivering a more cautious signal. Their open interest is around $51.7 billion, following a 1.59% drop in 24 hours. Part of the leveraged positions has therefore been closed, while options continue to attract traders.
The market will now have to monitor the ability of bitcoin to sustainably exceed $90,000. Without this progression, a large portion of the calls placed at $95,000 and $100,000 could expire worthless on October 30.
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