Bitcoin came close to $80,900 before rebounding towards $82,000. At the same time, the AI sector suffered another unpleasant surprise: OpenAI communicated to its investors an annualized revenue of close to 50 billion dollars for September, or around 20 billion less than the 70 billion previously mentioned. The two events do not have the same origin. However, they arrive in a market where expensive oil, high rates and gigantic expenses are starting to make investors much more demanding.
In brief
- Bitcoin rebounded towards $82,000 from a low near $80,900.
- OpenAI has about $50 billion in annualized revenue based on a new comparison method.
- Oil, bond yields and AI spending are weighing on risky assets.
Bitcoin rebounds after falling near $81,000
The movement was rapid. On Thursday, Bitcoin fell to around $80,940 on some platforms, its lowest level since September 21. BTC had already broken $83,000 while oil started to rise again a few hours earlier.
The threshold of $82,500 did not hold. Then the geopolitical situation relaxed slightly. Donald Trump said the United States would not strike Iran before the US elections in November and spoke of talks deemed productive. The oil market reacted immediately. On Friday, Brent fell by around 1.3% towards $102.91 per barrel and WTI by around 1.2%, around $90.40.
Bitcoin has climbed back towards $82,000. The rebound remains modest compared to the previous decline. It nevertheless shows how the crypto market is currently reacting to news from oil, Iran and US rates.
The relationship is indirect. More expensive oil can fuel inflation expectations. More resilient inflation reduces the chances that the Federal Reserve will quickly ease monetary policy. Bond yields then remain high, making non-yielding assets like Bitcoin relatively less attractive to some investors.
American bonds have had a turbulent week. The 30-year yield rose to 5.73%, its highest level in about 24 years. The ten-year rate also exceeded 5.3%. Bitcoin therefore finds itself stuck between several forces. The crypto market wants to rebound. The macro complicates his task.
Bitcoin ETFs Add Another Pressure to the Market
The fall towards $81,000 is not just from oil. US Bitcoin ETFs also sent a bad signal this week. On Wednesday, $484.9 million flowed out of spot Bitcoin ETFs, their biggest day of withdrawals since June.
BlackRock concentrated $207.7 million in outflows. Fidelity lost 105.1 million. ARK 21Shares recorded an additional 101.7 million withdrawals. Together, these funds represent more than $414 million. Above all, the movement very quickly erased the good start of the month. The first four sessions of October brought approximately $321.6 million to Bitcoin ETFs.
One day was enough to bring the balance sheet back into the red. This does not mean that institutional investors are abandoning Bitcoin. September still saw around $2.65 billion in net inflows into US funds.
Flow volatility simply becomes much more visible. The market also suffered several hundred million dollars of liquidations of leveraged positions. When Bitcoin breaks an important technical level, traders who bet with borrowed money can be liquidated automatically. Their positions are sold, which temporarily adds pressure.
The same mechanism was observed when bitcoin fell below $84,000. The rebound towards $82,000 calms things down a little. Bitcoin, however, remains clearly below the $86,000 observed a few days earlier. The recovery is therefore only partial.
OpenAI grows from $70 billion to around $50 billion in annualized revenue
While bitcoin corrects, another story worries Wall Street. OpenAI informed its investors that its September annualized revenue was approaching $50 billion. However, the figure had been presented around 70 billion a few days earlier.
Difference: around 20 billion. However, it would be misleading to say that OpenAI has just “lost” $20 billion in revenue. The problem mainly comes from the way of calculating income.
The figure of 50 billion notably excludes certain sales made via cloud partners such as Amazon Web Services and Google Cloud. OpenAI would have adopted this method in order to make its figures more comparable to those of its competitor Anthropic.
The comparison remains imperfect. Anthropic includes more sales made through its cloud partners in some of its revenue presentations. Around half of its activity would go through these partners.
Annualized income itself also requires a little explanation. It does not correspond to the turnover actually collected over twelve months. A business typically takes one month’s revenue and multiplies it by twelve. If it generates 4 billion dollars in September, it can thus present an annualized rate close to 48 billion.
For a company growing as fast as OpenAI, the result can change dramatically from month to month. OpenAI has grown from around $6 billion in revenue in 2024 to nearly $20 billion annualized by early 2026. So even $50 billion is still a considerable number. But the market is no longer just looking at growth. He looks at how much this growth costs.
Bitcoin and AI discover the price of expensive silver
This is where the two stories come together. Not because Bitcoin directly depends on OpenAI’s revenue. But because Bitcoin, Nvidia, OpenAI and the other big tech bets are currently operating in the same financial environment.
Money costs more. U.S. bonds are offering returns the market hasn’t seen in decades. Oil is still above $100. The financing needs for AI now number in the hundreds of billions.
At the end of September, the company was still seeking at least $30 billion from investors with a targeted valuation of around $1.4 trillion. At this level, a gap of 20 billion in the presentation of annualized income necessarily attracts attention.
Investors want to understand what they are paying. The market also reacted quite brutally on Thursday. Nvidia, Oracle, AMD, Broadcom, CoreWeave and several other stocks exposed to AI fell. Indeed, concerns about technology spending have joined concerns about bond yields and oil.
Friday brings a little calm. Oil is falling. Technological futures are recovering slightly. Bitcoin rebounds towards $82,000. However, nothing completely erases the questions from the day before. OpenAI continues to grow very quickly, but its capital needs remain gigantic.
Bitcoin retains significant institutional demand, but its ETFs can now lose nearly half a billion dollars in a single session. The two markets do not tell the same story. They simply remind us of something that investors had almost forgotten during the euphoric phases: when rates rise and billions become more difficult to obtain, growth alone is no longer enough. We also need to explain the numbers. And this week, both OpenAI and Bitcoin had to do it.
Maximize your Tremplin.io experience with our ‘Read to Earn’ program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.
