Bitcoin enters October with a particularly busy macroeconomic calendar in the United States. Federal Reserve minutes, inflation figures, consumption, rate decision and growth data could change monetary expectations and cause sharp swings in the crypto market.
In brief
- Bitcoin enters October with a particularly busy American macroeconomic calendar.
- Five key meetings will focus attention, between Fed, inflation, consumption, GDP and PCE.
- Inflation figures could change rate expectations and weigh on the dollar as well as risky assets.
- The Fed’s decision on October 28 could trigger strong volatility, especially in the event of a surprise in its speech.
- Despite the favorable reputation of “Uptober”, macroeconomic data will remain decisive for bitcoin.
Bitcoin in October: the five events to remember
The American employment report, published on October 2, has already set the tone by reigniting debates on the strength of the economy. Attention now shifts to the Federal Reserve and upcoming inflation indicators.
Five meetings will concentrate most of the macroeconomic risks during the rest of the month:
- October 7: publication of the minutes of the September meeting of the Fed;
- October 14: US consumer price index;
- October 15: producer prices and retail sales;
- October 28: Fed decision on interest rates;
- October 29: first estimate of GDP and PCE index for September.
These publications do not directly determine the price of bitcoin. However, they influence bond rates, the dollar and liquidity expectations, three factors capable of quickly changing investors’ appetite for risky assets.
Inflation Figures Will Test Bitcoin in October
The Fed will publish the minutes of its meeting of September 15 and 16 on October 7. The central bank then raised its rates for the first time in more than three years. The document will specify the arguments put forward by those responsible and their perception of inflationary risks.
A week later, the market will discover the September consumer price index. This publication, scheduled for October 14, will make it possible to assess whether price tensions continue to set in in the American economy.
Inflation above expectations could reinforce the scenario of further monetary tightening. Bond yields and the dollar could then rise, which would reduce the relative attractiveness of bitcoin. Conversely, a more marked slowdown in prices would ease the pressure on the Fed.
On October 15, the producer price index will complete this first reading. It measures changes in costs borne by businesses and can signal future pressures on consumer prices.
September retail sales will be released on the same day. Robust consumption would show that the economy is still resilient to high rates. This solidity could, however, encourage the central bank to maintain a restrictive policy for longer.
Fed decision could cause volatility
The Federal Reserve will hold its next meeting on October 27-28. Its decision will be published on October 28 at 2 p.m. in Washington, before the press conference of its president, Kevin Warsh.
The level of rates will naturally attract attention. However, a widely anticipated decision may already be priced in before the announcement. The market will then focus on the words used by the Fed and its indications regarding the last meeting of the year.
A speech emphasizing the persistence of inflation would support the hypothesis of lastingly high rates. This prospect may weigh on BTC, which pays no interest and suffers more competition from bonds when their yields increase.
Conversely, a Fed more concerned about employment or growth could fuel expectations for less restrictive policy. This configuration would not guarantee a rise in bitcoin, but it could improve the liquidity environment in which cryptos operate.
Leveraged positions will also increase the risk of sharp moves. An initial market reaction can trigger chain liquidations before investors have fully processed the press conference.
Bitcoin in October will also depend on GDP and PCE
On October 29, less than 24 hours after the Fed’s decision, the United States will publish the first estimate of its third quarter GDP. This figure will give a more complete measure of the resilience of the economy.
The report on household income and expenditure will be released at the same time. It contains the PCE index, the measure of inflation favored by the central bank. This data will arrive too late to influence the October meeting, but it could modify expectations for December.
Strong growth accompanied by persistent inflation would increase the risk of further rate hikes. Lower activity and better controlled prices could have the opposite effect. A fall in growth with still high inflation would, on the other hand, create a more difficult scenario to interpret.
October maintains a favorable reputation among crypto investors. Between 2013 and 2025, bitcoin ended the month up ten times out of thirteen, with an average increase close to 19%. It had nevertheless declined in October 2025, proof that seasonality does not guarantee any results.
The macroeconomic calendar will therefore weigh more than the nickname “Uptober». Discrepancies between published figures and market expectations will likely determine the extent of reactions.
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