The crypto market returns to a key level as the price of bitcoin returns to test major resistance. Jurrien Timmer, director of global macroeconomics at Fidelity, believes that a four-year bull cycle could be underway. Nine months earlier, he spoke of 2026 as a year of respite, after a phase of decline. Its chart places the threshold of $80,000 at the center of the scenario, with a projection towards $100,000 in the event of a breakout.
In brief
- Jurrien Timmer believes that a new four-year bull cycle could be underway.
- Crossing $80,554 would confirm, according to him, a double bottom targeting $100,000.
- The technical calculation gives a potential target around $103,400 after the breakout.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $134 million in inflows on September 25.
Bitcoin returns to contact with 80,000 dollars
Jurrien Timmer approached 2026 with caution, believing that the market could enter a period of pause. He then mentioned the possible end of a new halving phase in the four-year cycle. A few days later, he even described 2026 as a year of respite.
At this time, Timmer located support at $65,000 to $75,000. The decline finally exceeded this zone, with a move to $60,000 in early February, then to $57,800 at the end of June. Nine months later, his bitcoin analysis evolves after the market returns above $80,000.
In his analysis published on September 25, Timmer presents horizontal resistance for bitcoin located at $80,554. The chart shows two lows, at $60,033 and $57,742. It also shows highs near resistance, including $82,807 in May and $82,266 during the last peak.
A technical figure aiming for $100,000
According to Timmer, crossing $80,000 would confirm a double bottom pattern. In its chart, this resistance is precisely around $80,554. A lasting break of this line would therefore constitute the central element of its scenario towards 100,000 dollars.
The calculation presented in the text reinforces this projection. The difference between the low of $57,742 and the resistance of $80,554 reaches $22,812. Adding this amplitude to the breakout level, the theoretical target approaches $103,400. A measurement taking as a reference the May peak of $82,807 even brings the projection to around $107,900.
The target of $100,000 retained by Timmer therefore remains the most prudent version of this technical reading. The price of bitcoin closed the week of September 14 at $81,178 and then moved close to $84,000. A weekly close at this level would mark the highest since the week of January 19, which ended at $86,670.
Prediction markets remain more cautious
Timmer, however, is not the only analyst to speak of a return to $100,000. The scenario presented by PlanB for October also depends on the market remaining above $80,500. Both approaches thus place this threshold among the levels to monitor in the coming weeks.
Prediction markets, however, show a more measured reading. On Kalshi, the contract linked to a move above $100,000 in 2026 was trading at 39 centscompared to 41 cents the day before. The level remains below 46%, while the $110,000 contract was trading at 20 cents.
Caution appears even more on short maturities. The September contract for a move above $87,500 fell from 35 to 22 cents in twenty-four hours. This drop reflects a cooling of immediate expectations around bitcoin on the prediction market.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs Bring Another Demand Signal
At the same time, spot demand maintains a different dynamic. US spot bitcoin ETFs saw $134 million in inflows on September 25 according to data from Wu Blockchain. This was the seventh consecutive day of capital inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT contributed to this sequence of entries, according to reported data.
This movement brings an additional element to observe for bitcoin in the face of more cautious signals from prediction markets. On the one hand, short-term contracts have reduced their expectations on certain price levels. On the other hand, ETFs continue to see daily inflows, showing present spot demand.
The $80,000 zone thus remains at the heart of the next sessions for bitcoin. A breakout of resistance could strengthen the double bottom reading and move the technical projection closer to $100,000. Conversely, prediction markets signal caution on short maturities, while ETFs maintain inflows. Bitcoin is therefore entering this phase with several indicators to monitor, without their future evolution being yet established.
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