Bitcoin is reaching a big deadline on derivatives. On Friday, September 25, approximately 182,000 BTC worth of options, representing $15.6 billion in notional value, will expire on Deribit. Calls dominate with 106,200 BTC, compared to 75,900 BTC of puts. The settlement comes as Bitcoin was trading around $85,000 during Deribit’s reading, significantly above the “max pain” level set at $76,000.
In brief
- About $15.6 billion worth of Bitcoin options expire Friday on Deribit.
- The calls represent 106,200 BTC against 75,900 BTC of puts.
- The max pain level is at $76,000, below the current BTC price.
182,000 BTC expires on Deribit
The figure seems enormous. It is, but you have to read it carefully. The $15.6 billion corresponds to the notional value of the contracts. This amount will not be transferred on Friday between buyers and sellers. A portion of the options will simply expire worthless, depending on their strike price and the price of Bitcoin at settlement.
The size of the maturity has increased significantly since August. On August 28, Tremplin.io noted an expiration of $6.44 billion in Bitcoin options, with 81,700 BTC affected. The number of underlying contracts exceeds 182,000 BTC on Friday.
The positions remain more oriented towards calls: 106,200 BTC, compared to 75,900 BTC placed on puts. The put/call ratio thus stands at 0.71.
This imbalance does not mean that traders are all announcing a rise in Bitcoin. Options are also used to hedge a portfolio, sell volatility or construct more complex strategies.
The trend had nevertheless started to change before this deadline. Last week, the Bitcoin options market was already showing a measured return of optimism, with more bullish positions across multiple maturities.
The $70,000 level concentrates positions
The busiest level is not around $85,000. It’s $70,000. Deribit lists at this exercise price 8,705 BTC of calls and 7,653 BTC of puts. This is the highest concentration on both sides. The other big bullish positions are at $90,000, with 7,222 BTC, then at $100,000 with 6,950 BTC.
For bearish protections, $60,000 concentrates 5,571 BTC of puts. The $75,000 level brings together 4,257.
Between the two is the famous maximum bread: 76,000 dollars. It corresponds to the level at which the greatest number of Bitcoin options would expire worthless. BTC was trading around $9,000 higher during the Decrypt statement. This does not mean that Bitcoin has to return to $76,000 before Friday.
Previous expirations have already shown this. At the end of August, the max pain was between $68,000 and $70,000 while Bitcoin was approaching $80,000. The regulation did not cause a sudden return to this area.
The figure remains mainly followed for market maker hedging. A call seller can buy Bitcoin when BTC rises to reduce their exposure. After expiration, part of these hedges disappear or are postponed to another maturity. With $15.6 billion in notional value, the change may be visible.
Friday also brings several macro tests to Bitcoin
Deribit will settle contracts at 8 a.m. UTC on Friday. A few hours later will arrive US orders for durable goods and the final September reading of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index. The CME September Bitcoin futures contracts will also expire at 3 p.m. UTC.
The calendar falls a week after the 25 basis point increase decided by the Federal Reserve. American data is therefore particularly closely monitored for what it can change in rate expectations.
Bitcoin is already having these kinds of busy days. In June, nearly $13 billion in BTC options had expired as the market emerged from a sharp correction. This time the situation is different. Bitcoin is coming back from a marked rebound and calls are outnumbering puts. Friday will reset the counters on a significant part of the options market. 182,000 BTC will be affected at 8 a.m. UTC. Then, the coverage associated with these contracts may disappear, be closed or be moved to the following maturities. The $15.6 billion therefore does not predict the direction of Bitcoin. Above all, they indicate that a large part of the current positioning is coming to an end at the same time.
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