Crypto: Three major meetings await Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin opens a new week above $80,000 after briefly plunging towards $75,000 during the Federal Reserve’s decision. The economic calendar seems lighter, but three meetings stand out: a series of interventions by Fed officials, the first American PMIs for September on Wednesday and the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on Thursday. Last week, the American central bank raised its rates by 25 basis points, for the first time since July 2023. The Bitcoin market must now digest this return to monetary tightening.

Bitcoin emerges from a turbulent week around the Fed

Last week was not quiet. Hours before the US monetary decision, Bitcoin had slipped below $75,000. Then the Fed raised its rate range from 3.50%-3.75% to 3.75%-4.00%.

The FOMC adopted this decision unanimously, by 12 votes to zero. In its press release, the central bank estimates that American economic activity continues to grow at a solid pace, with resilient consumption and a relatively stable labor market. Inflation remains considered too high.

Bitcoin initially reacted brutally. Coinmarketcap notes a move around $75,000 before a return above $80,000 at the end of the week.

The level of rates is therefore no longer the only question. Investors mostly want to know what the Fed will do next. September’s hike is the first since July 2023. In the meantime, the central bank had cut rates several times in 2024 and 2025. Wednesday’s move breaks that streak. The US key rate has now returned to its fall 2025 level.

Bitcoin is thus entering a period where each American data can once again fuel the debate on the next FOMC decision.

The Fed will talk a lot this week

No new rate decision this week. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 27 and 28. However, Federal Reserve officials will be very present.

The calendar followed by the markets includes at least eight speeches by Fed officials during the week, according to the program taken up by CryptoPotato. The Board’s official calendar notably mentions Vice President Philip Jefferson on Tuesday, September 22, then Governor Michael Barr on Wednesday.

For Bitcoin, these speeches matter especially because they come just days after the rate hike. A manager may insist on inflation. Another might talk about the job market or the effect of oil on prices. Bond markets and the dollar then adjust their monetary policy expectations, sometimes without waiting for the next meeting.

Risky assets generally feel these changes. This link is not mechanical. A stronger statement from the Fed does not automatically mean that Bitcoin will fall. The reaction also depends on what was already priced, the dollar, bond yields and the positioning of traders.

Last week provided a good example. The 25 basis point increase was widely anticipated. Bitcoin saw volatility around the announcement and then recovered some of its losses.

The Fed has nevertheless changed one important element: the market no longer only debates when rates could fall. A further increase has now become a credible scenario again.

Wednesday’s PMIs will give an initial state of the economy

The second meeting arrives Wednesday September 23. S&P Global to publish its first estimates US manufacturing and services PMIs for September. These surveys question companies about their activity, new orders, employment, prices and their prospects.

The figure of 50 generally serves as a boundary: above, activity is expanding; below, it contracts.

The August data had been particularly strong. The US composite PMI reached 56.0, its best level since April 2022. Activity increased for the second consecutive month, with an acceleration in hiring and an improvement in business confidence.

Wednesday’s figures will show whether this strength held up in September.

S&P Global itself considers the publication important after recent economic and geopolitical shocks. Its latest global scenario highlights that the flash PMIs on September 23 will show whether activity maintains its pace despite high energy prices and a tighter monetary environment.

For Bitcoin, the reading may be less obvious than it seems.

Strong PMIs would be positive for the US economy, but could also show that it can still tolerate high rates. Conversely, activity that slows down sharply could reduce pressure on the Fed, while reviving concerns about growth.

There is therefore no universal “good number” for Bitcoin.

The market will likely also look at price components. The Fed has just justified its rate increase by still high inflation.

The positioning is also different from that of the beginning of the month. Before the Fed meeting, open positions in the crypto market had already declined sharply. Tremplin.io noted a 13.5% drop in open interest between September 3 and 11. Less leverage can change the magnitude of reactions. Not delete them.

Trump and Xi meet in Washington on Thursday

The third meeting is outside the classic economic calendar.

US President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday (September 24) in Washington, during Xi’s state visit to the United States from September 23-25. The Chinese Foreign Ministry confirmed the trip, while several American and international sources confirmed the meeting. The discussions should notably focus on trade between the two countries.

Washington and Beijing have been negotiating for several months around customs duties, technological restrictions and access to certain strategic raw materials. Artificial intelligence, Taiwan, fentanyl and China’s trade relations with Iran are also among the expected topics.

The summit comes with a still fragile trade truce. American and Chinese negotiators continued their discussions just before the meeting. The United States is particularly seeking progress on exports of rare earths, while Beijing wants to obtain more visibility on American technological restrictions.

Bitcoin is not directly on the agenda. The link goes through the financial markets. A trade easing can change growth expectations, the dollar and risk appetite. A further rise in tensions could have the opposite effect. Stock markets, bonds, currencies and commodities generally react before the real economic consequences are measurable.

The summit is therefore followed by investors well beyond the crypto market.

This does not predict the direction of Bitcoin on Thursday. The outcome of the discussions matters, but the difference between what the market expects and what will actually be announced matters just as much.

Bitcoin Comes Above $80,000, With No Quiet Timetable

The week also includes several secondary meetings. Weekly ADP employment data is due Tuesday. Thursday will bring August’s new home sales, then durable goods orders on Friday.

Probably none, taken in isolation, has the weight of an FOMC meeting. All in all, however, it can quickly change rate expectations.

The energy context also remains tense. Brent was still trading around $102 per barrel on Monday, even after a decline of around 2%. High energy prices remain monitored because they can maintain pressure on inflation.

This is precisely what Bitcoin needs to absorb after its rise above $80,000.

The reaction to the Fed has already shown that a single number is not enough. After the rate increase, BTC did not immediately continue its downward movement. Tremplin.io again noted on Friday that Bitcoin was moving relatively little despite the return of American rate increases. This week offers three new tests. First the words of the Fed. Then the PMIs on Wednesday. Finally Trump and Xi on Thursday. Bitcoin arrives at these meetings around a level which had already been lost and then regained in a few days. 75,000 dollars at the lowest around the Fed, more than 80,000 dollars at the end of the week. The data will now regain control.