After twelve months of caution, Bitcoin options traders are changing course. Since August 20, they have been paying more to bet on an increase in BTC than to protect themselves against a decline, a shift not seen in a year. The signal comes as bitcoin moves around $78,278, far from its peak above $126,000 in October 2025. Between domination of call options, increase in positions on futures and concentrated bets below $100,000, the derivatives market displays a newfound, but still measured, optimism.
In brief
- Bitcoin options traders are becoming bullish again after twelve months of caution.
- Calls now dominate puts and account for 61.39% of open interest.
- Bitcoin futures open interest reaches $52.64 billion.
- Bullish bets are concentrated between 78,000 and 100,000 dollars, a sign of still measured optimism.
In the options market, bullish sentiment takes over
The clearest signal comes from the 25-delta skew, an indicator that compares the price of calls and puts with comparable exposure to the market. According to Derive data relayed in the source, this volatility bias turned green on August 20. Traders are now willing to pay a higher premium for call options, which provide exposure to a rise in bitcoin, rather than for put options used as protection against a decline. Thus, the movement marks a break after twelve months during which caution had dominated in this segment of the market.
The open positions support this reading. In fact, call options represent 305,530.06 BTC, or 61.39% of the open interest of the options listed, compared to 192,126.29 BTC, or 38.61%, for put options. The gap also appears in twenty-four hour trading: 18,892.23 BTC of call options were traded, compared to 12,497.93 BTC of put options. For September, the positioning was around 1.8 calls for one put. This asymmetry reflects a more offensive market, without necessarily constituting a certain forecast of an increase in BTC.
Three data summarize the change in positioning observed on Bitcoin options:
- 61.39% of open interest is now made up of calls, compared to 38.61% of puts;
- 18,892.23 BTC of calls were traded over twenty-four hours, compared to 12,497.93 BTC of puts;
- September positioning was around 1.8 calls to one put.
Futures positions reach $52.64 billion
The futures market provides another measure of activity on Bitcoin derivatives. Thus, their open interest reached 676,820 BTC, or $52.64 billion, after an increase of 2.33% over twenty-four hours. Binance concentrates 142,870 BTC, valued at $11.11 billion, or 21.1% of the total. CME follows with 108,630 BTC, or $8.45 billion. Gate is worth $4.94 billion, Bybit is $4.83 billion, MEXC is $4.39 billion, and OKX is $2.78 billion.
Variations between platforms remain disparate. Over twenty-four hours, open interest increased by 1.66% on Binance and by 1.41% on CME, while Gate recorded a decrease of 3.03%. BingX stands out with an increase of 80.18%. On a shorter term, the overall movement also loses its vigor: open interest falls by 0.30% over one hour and by 0.15% over four hours. This data describes an increase in open positions over the day, without uniform progression across all platforms and horizons observed.
Between 70,000 and 100,000 dollars, traders mark out their scenarios
The preferred exercise prices make it possible to clarify what this return to optimism covers. For December, Derive lists approximately 710 million dollars positioned at 80,000 dollars and 530 million at 100,000 dollars. On Deribit, the September 25 call at $70,000 concentrates 10,956.7 BTC, ahead of the call at $85,000 with 9,492.8 BTC and the put at $70,000 with 9,426.8 BTC. Calls at 90,000, 80,000, 100,000 and 82,000 dollars are also among the important positions.
From then on, the distribution shows an optimism which remains contained. September bullish bets are concentrated between $78,000 and $100,000, while bearish protections are more clustered around and below $60,000. However, traders attribute almost zero probability to a return above the October 2025 peak, above $126,000. On CME, puts also remain more numerous than calls, while the open interest of options has recovered from its summer lows while remaining below the levels observed at the end of 2025.
The return of a positive volatility bias is therefore not enough, on its own, to announce a surge in the price of bitcoin. For the Deribit maturity of September 25, representing approximately $15 billion in notional value, the max pain is around $72,000, that of December 25 is around $71,000. On Binance, this level is around $75,000 for September. After twelve months of caution, the options market has changed direction. Its positions nevertheless show that operators are currently favoring a measured bullish scenario rather than a rapid return to previous BTC peaks.
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