Bitcoin: Will the Fed and the ECB raise their rates in September?

The question is not settled. The Federal Reserve decides on its rates on September 16, 2026, and the market is divided: the probability of an increase has fallen to around 50%, after having exceeded 60%, following more cautious comments from a Fed governor. The European Central Bank could also raise its rates this month. As a result, bitcoin (BTC) is sailing without direction: around $79,600 on September 7, just below $80,000, after bottoming at $76,700 on September 5 and a brief return above $80,000, according to CoinGecko.

Where is the bitcoin price this week?

As of September 7, 2026, bitcoin was worth around $79,600, close to $80,000 (according to CoinGecko), after a floor at $76,700 on September 5. September 7 being American Labor Day, the stock markets are closed and crypto volumes are thinner than during the week. The week was a back and forth: the price initially fell on fears of rising rates, before rebounding thanks to inflows on ETFs and a more cautious monetary signal. The total capitalization of the crypto market was around $2.78 trillion.

The table illustrates a market without direction, which reacts to macroeconomic signals rather than to a specific trend. A bottom in the middle of the weekend, a rebound above $80,000, then a consolidation on Monday: the price follows the calendar of central banks and that of oil.

Date (2026)	Bitcoin price	Highlight
September 3	≈ $78,000	Oil (Brent) above $96
September 4	> $81,000	Rebound, crossing resistance
September 5	≈ $76,700 (floor)	Relapse before employment US
Sep 6	> $80,000	Return above $80,000
September 7	≈ $79,600	Consolidation, thin volumes (Labor Day US)

Why is the September 16 Fed meeting under scrutiny?

There Federal Reserve (Fed) announces its decision on September 16, 2026. At the end of August, an increase of 25 basis points seemed likely; in early September, the probability fell back to around 50% (CME FedWatch), after Governor Christopher Waller estimated that a decline in inflation could justify maintaining rates.

The policy rate is the rate at which a central bank lends to commercial banks: it sets the cost of money throughout the economy. An increase would bring the US range from 3.50-3.75% to 3.75-4.00%. Two forces oppose each other. On the one hand, an August employment report above expectations, with 162,000 job creations and unemployment at 4.1%, calls for a turn of the screw. On the other hand, underlying inflation recently fell from 4.76% to 3.05%, which feeds the status quo camp. At its previous meeting, the Fed maintained its rates, following a vote of 9 votes to 3. The September meeting is also accompanied by updated economic projections, closely followed by the markets.

Can the ECB raise its rates in September too?

Yes, that’s a possibility. There European Central Bank (ECB) raised its deposit rate to 2.25% in June 2026, the first increase in three years, then maintained it in July. Its president Christine Lagarde left open the option of a new increase in September, citing the rise in energy prices.

This is the point that directly concerns a euro saver. The two main Western central banks can tighten their policy in the same month, for the same cause: oil driven by tensions in the Middle East. Asked about the September outcome, Christine Lagarde summarized the position of the Governing Council: “the burden of proof lies with the data”. For a European investor exposed to bitcoin, a double Fed-ECB tightening would mean stricter financing conditions on both sides of the Atlantic, and a potentially firmer dollar against the euro.

Central bank	Current key rate	Next decision	Market scenario
Federal Reserve (Fed)	3.50-3.75%	September 16, 2026	25 bp increase uncertain (≈ 50%, CME FedWatch)
European Central Bank	2.25% (deposit)	mid-September 2026	Possible increase, according to the ECB

Why are rates moving bitcoin?

Bitcoin does not pay any interest. When key rates rise, risk-free investments such as bonds or deposits yield more, which reduces the attractiveness of speculative and non-yielding assets, such as bitcoin or technology stocks. Conversely, a signal to hold rates, like that of Christopher Waller, relieves these same assets, which fueled the weekend’s rebound above $80,000.

This sensitivity is not new. In July 2026, James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, recalled that “ bitcoin remains very sensitive to inflation prospects“, and, by extension, to the decisions of the Fed such as the conflict in Iran. The mechanism is coupled with a currency effect: higher American rates support the dollar, in which bitcoin is denominated, which weighs on its price for a holder in euros.

Should we talk about crypto winter?

Not in the strict sense. Bitcoin has returned above $80,000, far from the floors of a true bear market. It has been moving mainly without trend for several weeks, between rebounds linked to ETFs and relapses. It is about 37% below its record high of $126,198, reached on October 6, 2025.

One figure tempers both the most optimistic and alarmist readings: the average acquisition cost for bitcoin ETF holders is around $83,800, above the current price. Many of these investors are therefore in latent loss, which creates a zone of resistance to recovery. On the demand side, spot bitcoin ETFs saw about $3.8 billion in net inflows over the past three weeks, their strongest period in 2026, supporting the rebound despite rate pressure. Furthermore, analyst Ali Martinez recalled that bitcoin often experiences high volatility during the weeks of FOMC meetings, with a tendency to decline just after the announcement. However, these flows are not enough to reverse the configuration as long as the monetary framework is not fixed.

To remember

• Bitcoin: around $79,600 on September 7, 2026 (just under $80,000), around 37% below its October 2025 record (CoinGecko).
• Fed: decision on September 16; probability of an increase fell to around 50% after the cautious signal from Christopher Waller (CME FedWatch).
• ECB: deposit rate at 2.25% since June; possible increase in September, according to the ECB.

The next appointment is scheduled. The Fed releases its decision and projections on September 16 at 2 p.m. New York time; the ECB returns its decision in mid-September. In between, the August US inflation report, due a few days before the meeting, will readjust the CME FedWatch probabilities. It is this timeline, and the price of oil that underpins it, that bitcoin holders will follow.