Trade war: Trump relaunches customs duties against around sixty countries

The markets will ultimately not be entitled to the hoped-for lull. As the temporary customs duties introduced 150 days ago expired, Donald Trump chose to relaunch the trade war by announcing, this Friday, a new wave of taxes targeting around sixty economies. Presented as a response to forced labor in certain supply chains, this offensive goes well beyond the framework of trade. It rekindles tensions between the United States, China and the European Union, while fueling a new phase of volatility in financial markets and alternative assets.

A targeted pricing offensive under the cover of social standards

This new system immediately took over this Friday from the temporary taxes of 10% introduced last February for a period of 150 days, which expired at the same time. A grace clause has been provided for products in transit, which will escape this taxation if they arrive at their destination before July 28. Thus, we observe a differentiation of rates:

• The 10% surcharge: it applies to partners with legislation deemed incomplete by Washington, in particular the European Union, the United Kingdom, Mexico or Canada;
• A 12.5% ​​surcharge: it affects around forty other nations, including China, Japan, Switzerland and South Korea;
• Only energy and raw materials not produced on American soil escape this new tax regime.

The American administration is relying on an investigation conducted since mid-March by the White House Trade Representative (USTR), Jamieson Greer, into the elimination of products resulting from forced labor. On CNN, Jamieson Greer firmly justified the administrative process: “We are seeking to put an end to the trade in these types of products. If you allow the importation of goods made from forced labor, it creates unfair competition against your own products. We want all countries to have the same type of protections”. This approach is part of a logic of continued pressure on the United States’ trading partners.

Greta Peisch, lawyer specializing in international trade, underlines that the objective is “to maintain control and maintain pressure so that countries continue to implement the trade agreements that have been signed, and perhaps negotiate others in the future. There is this common thread, even if customs duties vary greatly and change their justification in the meantime”.

Between Chinese response and European respite

Global diplomatic reactions immediately illustrated the divide caused by this announcement. In Asia, Australia has described these new barriers “unjustified”Wellington judged them “extremely disappointing” and Tokyo has indicated that it regrets them. China, an influential member of the BRICS bloc, hit by the 12.5% ​​tariff, showed strong opposition during a press conference held by Lin Jian, spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry: “We oppose any form of unilateral measures regarding customs duties. A tariff war or a trade war does not serve the interests of either party”. This high tension comes despite the truce concluded last October between Washington and Beijing, against a backdrop of persistent disputes over American restrictions on technological exports.

In contrast, the European Union greeted the news with obvious relief. Olof Gill, spokesperson for the European Commission, said that “the EU is pleased that this result is in line with US commitments on customs duties”the 10% rate applied respecting the 15% ceiling negotiated a year earlier in Turnberry, Scotland, and dispelling fears of escalation linked to the recent fine imposed on the giant Google.

Bilateral escalation and the overall macroeconomic impact

In parallel with this global offensive, the White House is pursuing a strategy of sanctions targeting specific partners while preparing new legal cartridges. Brazil has been affected since Wednesday by customs duties of 25% applying to almost half of its exports to the world’s largest economy, while Canada faces an additional surcharge of 50% due to come into force in a month.

The American government now favors selective targeting of goods rather than indiscriminate taxation of all imports. In addition, the Trade Representative’s office is carrying out other investigations based on the same legal basis targeted by the Supreme Court, in particular regarding potential foreign industrial overcapacity, a procedure which once again threatens the European Union.

On a macroeconomic and financial level, the establishment of these permanent customs barriers weakens traditional supply circuits and revives the risk of a global inflationary surge. By restricting the fluidity of global trade and accentuating protectionism, this policy forces economic actors to reassess their capital allocations. Faced with the fragility of sovereign currencies subject to state arbitrage and the arbitrariness of pricing policies, financial markets could accelerate their migration towards DeFi assets that are insensitive to customs borders, reinforcing the relevance of digital alternatives within international portfolios.