The scenario of bitcoin freed from its cycles thanks to the arrival of institutional investors is faltering. As the market settled into almost unanimous confidence, NYDIG cooled the heat with an analysis that recalls an old rule: each phase of euphoria eventually calls for a correction. According to the investment company, quantitative models now reveal a marked decline in the price of the flagship crypto, reigniting the debate on the strength of the current bull cycle.
In brief
- If Bitcoin replicates the 70% decline of the 2022 cycle, its all-time low would be between $38,000 and $39,000 by October 2026.
- The absence of major insolvencies and low volatility in 2025 suggest that this atypical cycle could end with a much more moderate decline.
- Opinions differ sharply between the optimism of K33 Research (floor already reached at $60,000) and the caution of Galaxy Digital or CryptoQuant.
- With more than half of the Bitcoins in circulation currently in the red, the market is entering its final and historic phase of contraction.
The specter of a low point at $38,000 for bitcoin
Bitcoin is going through a severe correction. To fully understand the thesis defended by NYDIG in its report, here is the essential facts to remember :
- A marked correction from the top: bitcoin is trading around $64,500, down almost 30% since the start of 2026 and 50% from its October 2025 peak at $126,080;
- A critical local low: the asset hit a 21-month low at $58,035, erasing $40 billion in capitalization in a single day;
- Cyclicality highlighted by NYDIG: the firm note Thus : “Bitcoin’s 2025-2026 pullback brings the 4-year cycle narrative back to the forefront, as the timing and structure increasingly resembles previous reset years of 2014, 2018, and 2022, even if the trajectory has not exactly replicated those declines”.
To technically justify this floor, NYDIG relies on the protocol’s history of bearish cycles, marked by corrections of 75% to 85%. Applying a 70% pullback (comparable to 2022) from the ATH of $126,080, mathematical modeling precisely places the low point between $38,000 and $39,000 by October 2026, four years after the previous cycle’s all-time low.
An atypical correction without major capitulation
However, NYDIG emphasizes that this theoretical projection does not constitute an absolute forecast due to characteristics unique to this cycle. The year 2025 has indeed emerged as the least volatile in the history of bitcoin, which could cushion the final descent.
In addition, the typical indicators of an end to the bear market are not yet visible, the firm specifying in a previous note that there was for the moment “no capitulation of long-term holders, no terminal insolvencies, and no reset” overall.
This specificity is explained by a profound structural change. Today’s market is no longer driven by spot demand, but almost exclusively by successive leverage liquidations. As a result, so-called value investors as well as momentum buyers prefer to remain cautious and wait for clear buy signals.
Analyst discord: Wall Street faces the purge dilemma
This pessimistic scenario of a return below $40,000 triggers strong opposition among other major Wall Street firms. In contrast, analysts at K33 Research strongly argue that the recent low at $58,035 was already the maximum downside level. According to them, the asset is now moving towards a healthy consolidation phase in a range between $60,000 and $75,000. In the same vein, Standard Chartered estimates that the cyclical floor has been established around $59,000.
Other giants, however, are more reserved about a rapid recovery. Galaxy Digital does not rule out a slide towards $40,000. For his part, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju believes that the bear market could last until the beginning of 2027. Finally, Grayscale says that the exit from this lethargy will depend entirely on the appearance of new macroeconomic catalysts.
Beyond these divergences, more than half of the bitcoins in circulation currently show a latent loss. Historically, such a level of distress has always preceded the formation of major cyclical bottoms. Whether the market validates the resilience defended by K33 or whether it suffers the slide towards $38,000 theorized by NYDIG, bitcoin is undoubtedly in the final phase of its contraction. The future will depend on the ability of investors to absorb this purge to begin the next big cycle.
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