The cryptocurrency market continues to look for clues that can confirm the end of the recent phase of price weakness. Several on-chain data are now attracting the attention of analysts, who are trying to identify the first signs of a lasting turnaround. In this context, Bitcoin once again finds itself at the center of Glassnode’s observations. An indicator followed by its research team shows that selling pressure from investors could begin to ease, although several technical levels still remain decisive.
In brief
- Glassnode observes a first on-chain signal that may announce the end of the market distribution phase.
- The realized losses of BTC holders over the past one to two years are starting to show signs of stabilization.
- A lasting reversal of this indicator could reflect a gradual exhaustion of selling pressure.
- The $69,000 threshold now appears to be the main level to cross to confirm a recovery.
Bitcoin: Glassnode observes a signal of stabilization of losses
While several on-chain indicators are scrutinized to detect a possible change in Bitcoin dynamics, Cryptovizart, senior research analyst at Glassnode, highlights in a analysis published on
According to him, the losses made by investors holding on to their assets for one to two years make it possible to better understand the evolution of selling pressure on Bitcoin. This indicator thus offers an overview of the behavior of a category of holders that is often decisive during changes in trend.
The analysis is based on several key points:
- Period studied: from July 2024 to July 2025 for the analysis of losses made on the blockchain;
- Bitcoin price at the start of this period: around $62,800;
- Peak reached before the reversal observed among many investors: nearly $107,000.
The study shows that many investors who bought during this period gradually accepted selling at a loss after a long phase of price underperformance. This capitulation reinforced the selling pressure observed on the market. For Cryptovizart, this behavior corresponds to a pattern already observed during previous bear cycles.
The analyst recalls that bear markets historically tend to last as long as this category of investors continues to fuel sales. On the other hand, when this pressure begins to ease, conditions gradually become more favorable for a change in dynamics.
A reversal of realized losses now attracts attention
The chart shared by the Glassnode analyst shows that realized losses on a 30-day moving average recently exceeded $75 million. However, this indicator then began to slow down before beginning a trend reversal.
According to Cryptovizart, the stabilization and then reversal of this moving average are among the most closely watched signals to identify a possible bitcoin bear market bottom. He nevertheless points out that this type of indicator does not provide immediate confirmation. Rather, it represents an additional element reinforcing the hypothesis of a progressive change in dynamics.
This observation therefore remains to be monitored in the coming weeks. If the drop in realized losses is confirmed, it could reflect an exhaustion of selling pressure coming from investors who bought near the highs of the previous cycle.
The $69,000 threshold remains the next test of the market
Glassnode points out that realized losses are not the only metric to watch. Fromother on-chain data continue to provide information on the current market structure. Among them, the Stochastic Relative Strength Index (RSI) calculated over two-month periods presents conditions traditionally associated with reversal phases.
In his newsletter The Week Onchainthe company mainly highlights the aggregate cost basis of short-term holders. This level currently sits around $69,000 and also matches old all-time highs reached during the 2021 bull market. For Glassnode, this zone could cause a significant reaction from bitcoin investors.
Analysts estimate that “ many short-term holders may be tempted to sell when their position returns to balance “. A convincing break above this level would open more space for a market recovery. Conversely, a rejection would maintain this resistance as a major obstacle for Bitcoin.
The coming weeks will allow us to verify whether the signals observed by Glassnode strengthen or whether they remain isolated. The evolution of realized losses, combined with the behavior of the market around $69,000, should offer new elements to assess the ability of BTC to confirm a real change in trend.
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