Bitcoin is trading at $59,800 this Monday, up 0.6% over 24 hours, but still below the psychological threshold of $60,000. The market structure remains oriented downward, despite a slight rebound in Solana and a lull in volatility indices. How far will sellers keep control?
In brief
- Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% since its October record, and analysts anticipate a continuation of the correction.
- The BVIV Implied Volatility Index fell 5% to 47%, snapping two consecutive weeks of gains.
- CoinMarketCap's Altcoin Season indicator remains stuck at 49/100, a sign of widespread expectation in the markets.
Derivatives confirm investor caution
Futures positioning data paints a less than encouraging picture. Over the last 24 hours, more than $200 million in positions have been forcibly liquidated, the majority of which are long. Open interest in bitcoin returned to levels from the beginning of the month, erasing the increase to 775,000 BTC recorded on Friday.
On Deribit, BTC options continue to favor puts. The $60,000 put option now has notional open interest close to $1 billion, compared to $1.11 billion for the $80,000 call option. If the price falls below this level, the next significant group of options lies at $50,000, with $712 million in open interest.
24-hour adjusted cumulative volume delta remains negative for 22 of the top 25 tokens. Sellers dominate the flows, placing market rather than limit orders.
Solana rebounds, but questions about sustainability remain
Solana has increased by more than 13% since Thursday, after hitting its lowest since the end of 2023 earlier this month. This rebound, however, has not convinced investors to take leveraged positions. SOL open interest remains high at 72.70 million SOL, just below the record high of 76 million reached on June 24, suggesting the potential for increased volatility.
AVAX shows a similar situation. Despite an increase of more than 5% in the past week, open interest continued to decline, falling to 38.07 million tokens, its lowest since April 1. A rebound without conviction, which the positioning data struggles to validate.
At the same time, some analysts point out that bitcoin is moving in a zone of historical undervaluation according to long-term indicators, with the current price being below its 200-day moving average for less than 10% of the time over its entire history.
The overall picture remains unfavorable in the short term. The massive liquidations, the decline in open positions on BTC and the persistent apathy on altcoins converge towards the same diagnosis: investors are waiting, without conviction to buy.
The Altcoin Season index stuck at 49/100 confirms that the market will only regain height if bitcoin clearly crosses $60,000. Only one trigger could change the dynamic: a weekly close above this threshold. For now, sellers dictate their tempo.
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