Ethereum: The market watches a decisive quarterly close

Ethereum arrives at a key moment of the quarter, when ETH risks recording a streak never seen before in its history. The second cryptocurrency on the market remains in decline, but it still has a window to reverse the trend. Between a more favorable macroeconomic context, contrasting technical signals and an increase in staking, the quarterly close is now attracting all the attention.

Ethereum risks first series of three red quarters

Ethereum is going through a marked decline as the end of the quarter approaches. In this context, the asset is approaching an important historical threshold. According to the Coinglass datahe has never finished three consecutive quarters in the red. Such a closing would therefore mark a first since its creation and would reinforce investor caution.

Recent figures show the extent of this pressure on the market:

• ETH fell by 28.28% in Q4 2025;
• The token then lost 29.26% in the first quarter of 2026;
• Over the current quarter, it still shows a drop of 18.4%.

This succession of losses reflects a prolonged period of weakness for Ethereum. It also weighs on investor confidence, because the market is now waiting for a clearer signal before returning more frankly to the asset. This correction also brought ETH back near multi-year lows.

In this climate, fear remains present. Analyst Dann Crypto Trades summed up the situation by stating that “ Ethereum heading for its second worst first half after 2022 ». Thus, the quarterly close becomes an important moment to measure ETH's ability to limit this negative streak.

A rebound still possible before the close

Despite Ether's recent decline, the situation still remains open before the end of the quarter. Two weeks before the close, the asset retains a final window to reduce its losses and avoid a third consecutive period in the red. The time frame remains short, but a recovery movement can still influence the final performance if the momentum maintains.

Several elements still support the hypothesis of a catch-up:

• The total capitalization of the crypto market increased by 2% over the last 24 hours;
• Ethereum gained 2.6% over the same period, slightly outperforming the overall market;
• ETH price traded above $1,700 after this market rally;
• After two consecutive quarters of losses, ETH has historically recorded a positive quarter;
• In 2022, the asset rebounded by 24% after two quarters in the red.

This context therefore gives an argument to buyers, even if caution remains necessary. More modest recoveries also followed similar periods in 2019 and 2020. These precedents show that the asset has already managed to recover after phases of prolonged weakness.

However, we must keep a nuanced reading. A sustainable recovery may have to extend into the third quarter, which remains historically the weakest for Ethereum. Its average yield reaches just 7.44%, showing that the road to a more solid rise may remain fragile despite recent signals.

Staking and technical signals support ETH, despite risks

Technical indicators also give mixed signals. Analyst Ardi observes a convergence with several old cycle lows. In particular, he cites ETH's recent contact with a lower acceptance cloud, as well as some RSI-related trends. For Ethereum, these elements may suggest a gradual stabilization phase.

But this reading remains cautious. The weekly RSI has not yet spent several weeks below the 30 threshold, as in previous cycles. At the same time, the ETH/BTC pair remains in a strong downtrend. As long as this pair continues to decline, ETH still has downside potential.

On the blockchain, staking data yet show sustained demand. More than 39.5 million ETH is currently blocked with more than 887,000 validators. This dynamic shows that many holders are choosing to lock up their tokens instead of selling them.

This development does not confirm a strongly bearish scenario. On the contrary, the progression of staking can limit part of the potential selling pressure. Ethereum is therefore entering a decisive end of the quarter: a confirmed rebound could avoid a historic first, while a new weakness would prolong the phase of market uncertainty.