The crypto market regularly experiences phases of euphoria and disillusionment, but certain indicators make it possible to identify the moments when investor sentiment really breaks down. For XRP, the latest data released by Glassnode indicates that such a breakout point could be underway. The on-chain analysis company is observing both an explosion in loss-making sales and a sharp contraction in activity on the network, reflecting a profound change in market dynamics.
In brief
- Glassnode is observing a dramatic reversal in the behavior of XRP holders, who are now making more losses than gains.
- A key on-chain indicator fell to 0.38, a level that analysts say reflects a phase of marked capitulation.
- Demand on the XRP network is losing steam, as evidenced by the 91.5% drop in transaction fees since February 2025.
- The combination of these signals highlights a market under pressure, where investor confidence and network activity are declining simultaneously.
XRP investors are now making more losses than gains
Glassnode observations show a significant deterioration in the behavior of XRP holders. To quantify this evolution, the company refers to “Realized Profit to Loss Ratio”an indicator which compares the profits made and the losses observed during token movements. Based on a 90-day moving average, this ratio is down to 0.38. Clearly, investors are now making many more losses than gains.
The main figures provided by Glassnode are as follows:
- The profit/loss ratio achieved over 90 days: 0.38;
- The market equilibrium level: 1;
- The peak recorded during the euphoria of 2025: 50;
- Investors currently make $0.38 in profit for every $1 in realized loss;
- Glassnode believes that the dynamics observed during the previous rally have completely reversed.
This situation is radically different from that observed during the speculative peak reached in 2025. At the same time, this ratio had reached 50, which signified a market where profits made far outweighed sales at a loss. Glassnode summary this change of regime by an unambiguous formula: “this dynamic has completely reversed”.
The contrast between these two periods highlights the extent of the change within the XRP market.
Glassnode identifies the characteristic signs of capitulation
The current weakness of the ratio is of particular importance in the eyes of analysts. With this type of metric, level 1 is a balance point between realized profits and losses. When the indicator is above this threshold, investors generally have more gains than losses. Conversely, a value less than 1 indicates a predominance of realized losses.
Glassnode indicates that, with a ratio limited to 0.38, the market is experiencing a particularly marked capitulation phase. The company explains that “this ratio so far from the equilibrium threshold of 1 shows a market where most investors who move their tokens do so at a loss, a typical characteristic of intense capitulation”. This reading shows that a significant portion of holders who give up or sell their XRP now agree to leave the market under unfavorable conditions.
This type of behavior therefore generally appears when investor confidence deteriorates over the long term. Operators therefore give up hoping for a rapid rebound and choose instead to reduce their exposure. Thus, the data observed by Glassnode reflect a psychological evolution of the market, distinct from the simple price fluctuations observed on a daily basis.
XRP network activity slows sharply after euphoria
Glassnode's concerns go beyond investor behavior. Network usage data also shows a clear slowdown in activity. To measure this trend, it is therefore necessary to observe the evolution of transaction fees paid on the XRP blockchain.
Published figures show a dramatic fall. The 90-day moving average of fees fell from almost 5,900 XRP in February 2025 to just 500 According to Glassnode, this movement marks a clear decline in transactional demand associated with the previous speculative phase.
Such a reduction in fees does not only reflect the level of technical activity of the network. It is also an indicator of user interest in the ecosystem. A sharp drop in transactions often indicates a decrease in exchanges, transfers or economic operations carried out on the blockchain. Glassnode thus judges that the organic demand observed during the expansion period has largely evaporated.
By combining these different signals, we obtain a very contrasting picture for XRP. On the one hand, when investors move their assets, they experience more losses than gains. On the other hand, the level of economic activity of the network marks a clear decline compared to those reached during the euphoria phase. These indicators do not predict future market developments, but reflect the current sentiment of participants in a relatively precise manner. We can therefore ask ourselves the question of whether this capitulation phase is only an intermediate stage in the XRP cycle or the beginning of a more significant period of market restructuring.
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