Is bitcoin replaying the scenario that precipitated its collapse in 2022? While the market's leading crypto fell as low as $59,100, some analysts see the reappearance of technical signals that marked the previous bear market. This alarmist reading contrasts with the optimism displayed on Ethereum and the expectations of a rebound that are emerging around XRP. Between extreme fear and bets on a reversal, the crypto market finds itself at a new tipping point.
In brief
- Bitcoin has fallen back under pressure and would, according to some analysts, reproduce a pattern already observed during the 2022 bear market.
- A key technical level is now focusing the attention of investors, who are monitoring the risk of a new phase of decline.
- Despite the market correction, Standard Chartered maintains its bullish forecasts for Ethereum and highlights the strength of its fundamentals.
- XRP is moving in a historic technical zone which is fueling speculation around a possible bearish trap.
Bitcoin facing decisive support after its fall
Bitcoin plunged as low as $59,100 during the recent market correction, reigniting investor concerns. For analyst Rekt Capital, this sequence reproduces a pattern already observed during the 2022 bear market.
In a publication, he claims that bitcoin is copying this period “almost identical”. His attention now shifts to the 50-month exponential moving average, located at $66,628.
According to him, this level could offer temporary support before a new phase of withdrawal. The analyst thus estimates “that over time, bitcoin should eventually break below this exponential moving average and continue its downward trend over the current cycle”.
This analysis is based on several technical levels particularly monitored by investors:
- A recent low point at $59,100;
- A 50-month EMA located at $66,628;
- Similar historical precedent seen during the 2022 bear market;
- A risk of a break in this support likely to increase selling pressure.
During the previous bearish cycle, bitcoin bounced off this moving average several times before eventually losing it. It is precisely this parallel which is now fueling questions about the market's ability to stabilize its prices in the weeks to come.
Ethereum and XRP resist the most pessimistic scenarios
While bitcoin focuses the attention of technical analysts, other observers are highlighting more constructive signals about the rest of the market. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 11 out of 100its lowest level since April 5. For the Cryptic Trades trader, such an extreme level of fear could favor a technical rebound in the market.
At the same time, Standard Chartered Bank maintains its forecast of Ethereum at $4,000 by this year-end despite a decline of around 57% since its peak above $4,800 in August 2025. Geoff Kendrick, the bank's global head of crypto research, said compared the current situation to that of Amazon after the bursting of the internet bubble, affirming that “the company's fundamentals remained solid despite the fall in its stock price”.
The case of XRP is also attracting attention. After its fall to $1.25, the asset evolves according to analyst Egrag Crypto on a macroeconomic trend line which has supported its price since 2017. The latter even mentions the possibility of “biggest bear trap”, suggesting that part of the market could underestimate the token's ability to rebound. Such a reading contrasts with the ambient pessimism observed in the crypto market in recent days.
The divergence between analyzes illustrates the uncertainty currently dominating the sector. On the one hand, some observers see bitcoin's weakness as a repetition of an already known bearish pattern. On the other hand, several sentiment indicators and some long-term projections continue to fuel more favorable scenarios for Ethereum and XRP.
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