SpaceX still loses billions but Wall Street promises it a dizzying future

Elon Musk is preparing to leave a brilliant mark on the marble of global markets. With SpaceX, he no longer sells just rockets, but a promise cut like an expensive Swiss watch. Wall Street is already looking at this IPO as an open vault on space, AI and orbital power.

SpaceX loses big, but aims for a historic crown

SpaceX is preparing an IPO that could become the largest IPO ever. The company is reportedly targeting $75 billion raised, with a valuation close to $1.75 trillion. However, the financial present remains less golden than the window.

In 2025, SpaceX generated 18.7 billion dollars in revenue, compared to 14 billion in 2024. This 33% increase did not prevent a net loss of 4.94 billion, after a profit of 791 million the previous year.

Indeed, SpaceX is investing heavily in its satellites, its infrastructure and its AI activity. Wall Street therefore does not only look at the current income statement. She buys a trajectory, almost a tailor-made suit sewn for patient investors.

Morgan Stanley already projects 330 billion in revenue in 2030, then 3,400 billion in 2040.

AI becomes the hidden diamond of the rocket

The heart of the story suddenly changes: SpaceX is no longer only told as a space company. Banks are now presenting its AI business as the future main driver. In 2025, this division generated $3.2 billion. Morgan Stanley already imagines 190 billion in AI revenue in 2030. Goldman Sachs is even pushing the cursor up to 322 billion.

This shift explains the almost royal enthusiasm of Wall Street. Rockets are a dream, but artificial intelligence promises the margins of empire. In this financial jewelry, each algorithm becomes a precious stone placed on the SpaceX crown.

Goldman sees total revenue above 470 billion in 2030. Morgan Stanley remains lower, around 330 billion, but still forecasts 230 billion in adjusted EBITDA.

In other words, banks are selling less the SpaceX of today than the theoretical SpaceX of tomorrow. This bet remains dizzying, because it transforms a loss-making company into a future industrial palace.

Starlink, China excluded: the other side of the orbital palace

Starlink, however, remains a major piece of the case. The service reportedly has 10.3 million subscribers in 164 countries, with more than 9,600 satellites in orbit. Goldman Sachs estimates that Starlink could generate $144 billion in revenue in 2030. Space launches would increase more modestly, from $4.1 billion to $8.3 billion over the same period.

Next, geopolitics enters the VIP lounge. According to Reuters, investors from China and Hong Kong would be excluded from the IPO. Banks would cite regulatory and compliance reasons. This restriction is a reminder that SpaceX is no ordinary company. It touches on satellites, data, AI and sovereignty.

The numbers that shine in the file

• SpaceX is targeting around 75 billion raised during its IPO;
• The sought-after valuation is approaching $1.75 trillion;
• SpaceX posts 4.94 billion net loss in 2025;
• Starlink claims 10.3 million subscribers in 164 countries;
• The AI ​​activity already represents 3.2 billion in annual revenue.

SpaceX's IPO now seems imminent, but not everything sparkles like champagne in a presidential suite. Future shareholders will also have to look at the risk of dilution reported by the company. Even in orbital luxury, a promise can be expensive when new shares then come to market.