Petrobitcoin: Will the dream of an oil-backed Bitcoin come true in 2026?

Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz are rekindling concerns about the stability of the global energy system, through which a major part of the world's oil passes. Long structured by the domination of the dollar, this balance is evolving under the effect of dedollarization, geopolitical recompositions and the emergence of alternatives such as bitcoin, increasingly mentioned in certain scenarios of bypassing traditional financial circuits. In this context of progressive transformation, oil becomes a friction point in a silent monetary shift. A question then naturally arises: are we moving from an age of the petrodollar to an era where a petrobitcoin standard is gradually taking shape?

Dedollarization is accelerating: BRICS are challenging the hegemony of the Dollar

Historically, oil has been mainly denominated in dollars since the 1970s, which permanently consolidated the position of the greenback after the end of the gold standard. However, for several years now, the dominance of the dollar has been gradually challenged by several economic powers. New currencies are gaining ground in international trade, particularly in oil-related flows, reflecting a gradual restructuring of the global monetary system.

According to the latest COFER data from the IMF, dollar assets held by central banks excluding the Federal Reserve fell to $6.63 trillion at the end of 2024, compared to $6.69 trillion a year earlier. The share of the dollar in world reserves thus fell to 57.8%, its lowest level since 1994, confirming a gradual diversification towards other assets, notably gold.

In this context, BRICS are accelerating their rebalancing strategies. Russia holds around 2,335.85 tonnes of gold, China 2,298.53 tonnes and India nearly 879.98 tonnes. Russia and China alone account for around 74% of the bloc's gold reserves, illustrating a coordinated strategy to reduce dependence on the dollar-dominated system.

This dynamic is also reflected in energy exchanges. India imported around 60 million barrels of Russian oil in March, some of which was paid for directly in yuan, illustrating a gradual diversification of currencies used in energy trading.

At the same time, China is strengthening its alternative financial infrastructures. The mBridge platform processed approximately 387.2 billion yuan (nearly $55 billion), 95% of which was in digital yuan. The CIPS system, meanwhile, recorded around $245 trillion in transactions in 2025, confirming its growing role in international financial flows.

Bitcoin: the emergence of alternative payments in the oil trade

Oil remains at the center of the economic and geopolitical balance of power. Its trade is directly influenced by international sanctions, prompting some players to explore workarounds outside of traditional financial systems.

In this context, particularly during the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war in 2022, marked by the exclusion of several Russian banks from the SWIFT system and the freezing of approximately $600 billion in foreign assets held by the central bank of the Russian Federation, the bitcoin has increasingly emerged as a theoretical settlement option for certain energy flows. In Russia, Duma deputy Pavel Zavalny raised the possibility of paying for certain oil and gas exports in bitcoin or alternative assets in order to circumvent sanctions and reduce dependence on traditional financial circuits.

In the context of current geopolitical tensions marked by a confrontation between Iran, the United States and Israel, Tehran is exploring circumvention mechanisms in strategic areas such as the Strait of Hormuz, where pricing schemes linked to the passage of ships could be settled exclusively in bitcoin or Chinese yuan.

These initiatives do not yet constitute an established system. However, they reflect a clear evolution: energy flows are beginning to include considerations of alternative payment methods, in a context of increasing fragmentation.

Petrodollar vs Petrobitcoin: towards a shift in global energy payments?

The global system still remains largely structured around oil and historical settlement mechanisms. This framework has long consolidated the dominance of traditional currencies in international energy trade.

However, geopolitical tensions and monetary diversification strategies are gradually weakening this balance. In this context, the idea of ​​a 'Petrobitcoin' emerges as a potential alternative under study: a hybrid system where certain oil transactions would be based on digital assets, mainly BTC, in constrained environments.

This reflection was notably developed well before by the journalist and essayist Nicolas Teterel, who has been analyzing the interactions between bitcoin, geopolitics and the transformation of the international monetary system for several years. In his work, he evokes a scenario where BTC could serve as an alternative settlement instrument in energy flows. With its distinct structural characteristics: transparency via blockchain, censorship resistance, supply limited to 21 million units and independence from monetary policies. These elements make it an asset studied in circumvention scenarios.

At this stage, no explicitly identifiable oil transactions in bitcoin have been observed on public on-chain data. This indicates that its use still remains exploratory, more discussed than actually deployed. Without replacing existing systems, it nevertheless stands out as a potential tool in certain constrained energy flows. In the longer term, the most likely scenario is not a sudden replacement. However, it is likely that an unstable coexistence will develop between traditional circuits and digital solutions. In this coexistence, oil could become a monetary testing ground within an increasingly fragmented global system where BTC would play a growing role.