The signal of the moment on bitcoin is quite clear: long-term holders are selling less, and this reduces some of the pressure that was weighing on the market. VanEck speaks of a “potentially constructive” bias, which does not mean immediate euphoria, but rather a ground that ceases to slip under the feet of buyers.
In brief
- Long-term holders reduce their positions less.
- Miners remain under pressure, without selling aggressively yet.
- The bias becomes more constructive, but the macro keeps control.
Old bitcoins move less
This change comes in a still nervous market. Bitcoin is trading around $71,000 on March 20, 2026, while the macro environment remains tense after the Fed maintained rates and the rise in geopolitical uncertainties. In other words, the bottom is improving a little, but the ceiling has not disappeared.
The central point of VanEck's report is simple: older wallets spend less of their bitcoin. Transfer volume declined month-over-month across all coin age groups, suggesting that more experienced players are distributing their holdings less than before.
In this same movement, the active supply held by long-term investors increased from 31% to 30%. It's not a collapse. Rather, it is a discreet, almost silent shift, which indicates that a slightly smaller share of old stock is circulating in the short term.
This kind of signal matters because the bitcoin market often turns over through attrition, not through spectacle. When older hands sell less, distribution pressure drops. This does not guarantee an immediate increase, but it removes real weight from the supply side.
Miners are not panicking yet
The other important lesson concerns Bitcoin miners. Their economic situation has deteriorated over the past month: total revenues have fallen by 11% and stocks in the sector have lost around 7%. However, their outflows to exchange platforms only increased by 1% in BTC.
This detail deserves to be looked at closely. The miners are not in mass capitulation mode. They remain under pressure, but they have not yet transformed this pressure into a wave of brutal selling. This is one less potential drag on the market in the short term.
The nuance is harsher. VanEck estimates that miners hold around 684,000 BTC outside of Bitcoin wallets attributed to Satoshi, down around 0.5% year-over-year, while around 164,000 new BTC were mined over the same period. Clearly, the sector has practically absorbed its costs by selling most of the new issue. And if the price falls sustainably, this restraint may not last.
A calmer blockchain in a more mature market
The report also shows a marked slowdown in onchain activity. Transfer volume decreased by 31%, daily fees by 27%, active addresses by 5%, and average fees by 40% over 30 days. Only the total number of transactions increased slightly.
Taken in isolation, this picture might seem bearish. But VanEck puts forward a more subtle reading: a growing share of activity is migrating off-chain, towards listed products, derivatives and other financial channels that do not necessarily create direct settlements on the Bitcoin blockchain. The market becomes more institutional, therefore sometimes less visible through the network's historical indicators alone.
But to transform this support into a clear recovery, the macroeconomy will have to stop sending contradictory signals. Because nothing is over yet: Polymarket and Kalshi still see bitcoin below $55,000 by December.
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