The scenario seems huge. However, Bitwise maintains that a $1 million bitcoin does not necessarily imply total dominance over gold. According to Matt Hougan, the company's chief investment officer, bitcoin would only need to capture around 17% of the global store of value market within ten years to reach this symbolic threshold.
In brief
- Bitwise believes that a $1 million Bitcoin does not require total dominance over gold.
- According to Matt Hougan, 17% of the global store of value market could be enough over ten years.
- The scenario remains credible on paper, but it still depends on a real convergence between Bitcoin and the role of safe haven.
Bitwise changes the framework of the bitcoin debate
The central idea is simple. Many analysts consider the $1 million target unrealistic, as they assume that bitcoin would swallow almost half of the capitalization of current gold. Bitwise rightly considers that this calculation is based on a bad basis.
For Matt Hougan, the mistake is to see the store of value market as a fixed block. However, this market grows over time. It is driven by very concrete factors: public debt, geopolitical uncertainty, flexible monetary policies and the search for assets capable of preserving purchasing power.
In this reading, bitcoin does not need to “take the place” of today’s gold. Above all, it must gain its share in a market which could become much larger. In other words, the bar remains high, but it is no longer absurd. This is the whole nuance of Bitwise's reasoning.
A much larger store of value market tomorrow
Bitwise recalls that the capitalization of gold increased from around 2.5 trillion dollars in 2004 to nearly 38 trillion today, an average annual increase of around 13%. If this dynamic continues, the global store of value market could reach $121 trillion in ten years.
At this level, bitcoin would not need to dominate half the field. A 17% share would be enough, according to Hougan, to justify a price of $1 million per unit. The figure is striking because it transforms a maximalist fantasy into a more defensible market hypothesis.
This reasoning also has a psychological effect. It shifts the conversation. We are no longer talking about a brutal shock between bitcoin and gold, but about a gradual shift in a world where investors seek several refuges at the same time. In this setting, bitcoin does not need to be alone at the top to be worth much more than it is today.
Bitcoin: engines advanced by Bitwise
Bitwise supports its thesis on several already visible trends. The company cites the rise of institutional investments, the role of ETFs, potential interest from sovereign wealth funds and the gradual increase in bitcoin allocation in portfolios.
This point is worth remembering. Bitwise's bet is not just a theoretical calculation. It is based on the idea that bitcoin continues to gain legitimacy in traditional finance. This movement remains irregular, sometimes slow, but it exists. And it is precisely this type of adoption that can lastingly change the perceived value of an asset.
In other words, Bitwise is not selling a miracle. The manager suggests a trajectory. It assumes that bitcoin will continue its transformation: less of a pure speculative asset, more of a wealth instrument for investors who want to diversify their exposure to monetary and geopolitical risk.
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