The flash surge in oil prices puts bitcoin back at the center of the macroeconomic game. In a few sessions, American crude posted one of its most marked increases, reviving a key question for the markets: can energy shocks trigger a new bullish cycle in cryptos? Several analysts are now examining a possible domino effect. In this tense climate, could bitcoin capitalize on this situation and aim for a significant rally in the coming weeks?
In brief
- The recent surge in oil prices is reigniting debates about its possible influence on crypto markets.
- Several historical precedents show that a strong rise in crude has often been followed by a notable increase in Bitcoin.
- On average, Bitcoin gained nearly 20% in the month following these oil shocks observed between 2020 and 2025.
- This data fuels a scenario envisioning a target around $79,200 by the end of March if the momentum repeats.
The foundations of the bullish scenario for bitcoin
The analysis is based on the observation of previous episodes where a rapid surge in oil prices was followed by a marked increase in bitcoin. Four distinct sequences have been identified, between 2020 and 2025, during which the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) recorded increases greater than 15% over a period of less than ten days. In each of these cases, the bitcoin market developed positively in the following weeks.
These occurrences serve as a basis for a comparative reading of market cycles. Thus, bitcoin rose on average by around 20% in the four weeks following these oil shocks. This historical average feeds a short-term projection scenario, linked to the recent surge in crude oil observed on the energy markets.
THE important events are as follows:
- “West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices jumped 15% in one week from June 11, 2025… The price of bitcoin then erased this movement before recording an increase of 10% over the following four weeks” ;
- In an earlier episode, oil jumped 23% in nine days in early November 2020, and “Bitcoin price followed the trend… registering a 45% increase from its initial level of $13,500 in less than a month”;
- Two other comparable outbreaks occurring in 2022 and 2023 complete this statistical sample, leading to this average post-shock performance.
Based on these precedents, a potential target of around $79,200 by the end of March is discussed, subject to current market conditions replicating a similar dynamic.
A nuanced perspective
While historical correlation with increases in oil prices suggests upside potential for bitcoin, analysis of the current market introduces important nuances. The price of bitcoin is currently highly correlated with tech stocks, with around an 81% correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index. This means that, more than oil, stock market trends can weigh on the crypto's behavior in the very short term.
Furthermore, these four historical events do not constitute a statistical basis “sufficient to prove a strong correlation”between the movements of oil and those of bitcoin. This point warns against a mechanical interpretation of past data.
Finally, we can also link the potential rally scenario to the duration and intensity of the conflict in the current Middle East. Ultimately, the duration of the war in Iran will determine whether a bitcoin rally toward $79,200 is possible by the end of March. This formulation highlights that unpredictable geopolitical factors, including evolving tensions between the United States and Iran, could either strengthen or undermine the upside hypothesis.
Historical precedents support the hypothesis of a rebound, but the current context remains mixed. Market correlations and geopolitical tensions confuse the reading, especially since bitcoin fell 2% while oil soared. The bullish scenario remains plausible, without certainty, in an environment where each macroeconomic signal can reshuffle the cards.
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