The Bitcoin network has just reached a historic milestone: 20 million coins mined out of 21 million in total. There are therefore only one million BTC left to be created, and this last million will take more than a century to see the light of day.
In brief
- The Bitcoin network has reached 20 million mined coins, leaving only 1 million BTC yet to be produced.
- Around 450 new bitcoins are created every day, a rate that halves with each halving.
- The last bitcoin will not be mined until around 2140, according to current projections.
One million Bitcoins still to be mined, the ultimate scarcity in progress
Since its beginnings in 2009, Bitcoin has advanced according to a relentless logic: a limited supply, a timetable engraved in the code, and a community that monitors each block produced. On March 9, at block 940,000, the network reached a milestone that many now consider the most symbolic since the first block mined by Satoshi Nakamoto.
The 20 millionth bitcoin was mined on the network today, an event hailed by the entire global community of BTC enthusiasts. Now, around 450 new coins are created every day.
This rate is halved every four years during halving, this mechanism specific to Bitcoin which gradually compresses the creation of new coins. At this rate, the last bitcoin will not be created until around 2140.
David Eng, managing partner of Energy Co, sums up the issue well:
The market is on the verge of an unprecedented phenomenon: a global asset whose supply is almost exhausted.
What is fascinating here is the absolute predictability of the system. Raphael Zagury, CEO of the mining company Elektron Energy, puts it clearly: “ The issuance schedule is transparent for decades to come. Human beings like predictable rules, especially when it comes to money. »
Tommy Rogulj, portfolio manager at Swyftx, goes further. For him, Bitcoin is “a fixed-cap, permissionless and neutral asset, operating according to a transparent supply curve, unlike fiat currencies, which are infinitely expandable”.
A characteristic that takes on its full meaning in a global context marked by inflation, geopolitical tensions and growing distrust of central banks.
A symbolic event, but without immediate effect on the price
If the step is historic, its impact on the markets remains, for the moment, zero. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, puts it bluntly: “ Markets already know the growth rate of Bitcoin supply. It’s a non-event, with no impact. »
Zagury agrees: “ Liquidity and the macroeconomic situation remain the predominant factors. »
However, in the longer term, the situation could change. “ Scarcity combined with predictable policy is a powerful combination. Over time, markets tend to reward systems that people trust », nuance Zagury.
A vision that analyst PlanB shares, who projects an average price of $500,000 for bitcoin over the 2024-2028 cycle, via his Stock-to-Flow model, based precisely on this relationship between scarcity and value.
However, one question remains unanswered: what will happen after the last bitcoin mined in 2140? Without new issuance, miners will have to survive on transaction fees alone. Some see this as a risk to network security; others, the next natural evolution of a system designed to last.
In short, twenty million bitcoins mined, one million still to come: Bitcoin is moving inexorably towards its absolute limit. Whether or not the markets react today, the logic of programmed scarcity continues to be present, block after block, over the long term. And this is perhaps its most formidable strength.
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