While gold is trading near its all-time highs, bitcoin remains behind. This divergence attracts the attention of some analysts. According to a recent analysis, the asset today appears undervalued compared to the precious metal. A statistical gap which, in the past, preceded phases of marked market recovery. This signal rekindles the debate on the relative valuation of bitcoin compared to gold.
In brief
- Bitcoin currently appears undervalued compared to gold according to an analysis based on the BTC/XAU ratio.
- A Z-score close to −2 indicates a significant deviation from historical averages.
- Comparable situations in 2020 and 2022 preceded phases of strong market recovery.
- This statistical signal does not constitute a certainty, but raises the question of a possible bullish reversal.
Statistical indicator suggests marked undervaluation
Jan3 analyst and CEO Samson Mow estimates that bitcoin would be between 24% and 66% below its theoretical value when compared to gold or the global money supply, while the flagship asset's bear market is still ongoing. He emphasizes that the asset is currently “undervalued” with regard to this metric.
The analysis is based on the Z-score of the bitcoin/gold ratio (BTC/XAU), an indicator measuring the deviation of the ratio from its historical average. THE key elements highlighted are the following:
- The Z-score of the BTC/XAU ratio is currently negative, close to −2, a level historically associated with phases of undervaluation;
- In March 2020, during the COVID-19 shock, a comparable level preceded a significant bitcoin rally in the following months;
- At the end of 2022, after the collapse of FTX, a similar signal was also observed before a marked market recovery.
These precedents are cited as examples where a significant statistical gap between bitcoin and gold was followed by a bullish phase. The indicator is not a prediction, but it does reveal a measurable shift from historical trends in the ratio between the two assets.
A market context dominated by the dynamics of gold
This reading comes as gold moves near its historic highs, driven by geopolitical tensions and the search for safe haven assets. The total capitalization of the precious metal is estimated at around $30.6 trillion, compared to around $1.76 trillion for bitcoin. The valuation gap therefore remains considerable between the two assets, often compared for their potential role as a store of value.
The analysis also highlights that the current dynamic does not yet reflect a clear rally in bitcoin, despite the observed statistical signal. The Z-score indicates a deviation from the historical average, without however constituting a guarantee of immediate turnaround. The indicator is based on past correlations and the relative evolution between two assets whose cycles may diverge depending on macroeconomic conditions.
The gap between bitcoin and gold thus rekindles a central debate: that of the relative valuation of safe haven assets in the digital age. While historical precedents show that similar levels of undervaluation have been followed by marked recoveries, each cycle retains its specificities. Investors will therefore have to choose between statistical reading and macroeconomic prudence, in an environment where global liquidity, interest rates and geopolitical tensions continue to influence capital flows.
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