This Saturday, February 28, 2026 marks a major turning point in escalation in the Middle East. After American-Israeli airstrikes against the Iranian regime and its military capabilities, Tehran responded by de facto blocking the Strait of Hormuz. On VHF maritime waves, the Revolutionary Guards broadcast a clear message: “No ships are allowed to pass. » Major oil companies are already suspending shipments. Will the barrel of Brent cross the symbolic milestone of 100 dollars?
In brief
- Iran warns by radio that passage through the Strait of Hormuz is prohibited.
- 20 to 21 million barrels of oil pass through this bottleneck every day, or 20% of world consumption.
- Oil companies are suspending their loadings as a safety measure.
- The markets anticipate a surge in Brent prices from the opening on Monday.
Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz
Saturday morning, the United States and Israel launch Operation “Epic Fury”. Strikes target Tehran, Isfahan and several strategic installations. From Florida, Donald Trump calls on the Iranian people to “take back power”.
The choice of calendar is not insignificant: by striking on a Saturday, Washington avoids an immediate reaction from Wall Street. The markets are closed. The shock is contained, at least temporarily.
The Iranian response was not long in coming. Missiles target Israel and US bases in Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. However, the most powerful signal comes from the sea.
On VHF channel 16, Iranian authorities announce ban on passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The British maritime agency UKMTO and the European naval mission confirm the alerts.
No official decree has yet been published. However, the effect is immediate. The tankers slow down, some remain at the dock. Several trading houses and oil companies are stopping their operations as a security measure. This maritime corridor of only 33 kilometers at its narrowest point is becoming an area of extreme tension.
Iran has threatened to close Hormuz in the past. During the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, attacks on tankers caused crude oil prices to jump by more than 50%. In 2019, sabotage had already strained the markets. But never has the threat been so direct in a context of head-on confrontation with Washington.
Oil at the center of the economic storm
Why does this strait matter so much? It concentrates exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the Emirates and Kuwait. Without it, more than 20% of the world's oil remains stuck. The only bypass pipelines available, Saudi and Emirati, cap at 2.6 million barrels per day. A ridiculously insufficient capacity compared to the 20 million that normally circulate across the strait.
Friday evening, Brent had already closed at $72.87, up almost 3% on the day alone and 8% on the month, driven by the first fears of attack. On Monday, traders expect a bullish gap of at least $5 to $10.
The darkest scenarios, mentioned by Barclays and Rystad Energy, speak of $100 if the chaos lasts several days, with some experts even going so far as to suggest $150 in the event of a prolonged escalation.
For the United States, the impact will be direct and painful. Prices at the pump could rise 20 to 30 cents per gallon in a matter of weeks. Inflation, already sensitive, would start to rise again, placing the Fed in an impossible position: combat rising prices or support an economy weakened by the shock.
Conversely, energy giants like Exxon or Chevron could record record profits… but at what cost?
In short, this Saturday, February 28, 2026 will remain a pivotal date. Trump started a war by carefully choosing his weekend, but on Monday morning the markets will open and deliver the bill. The real test will not be played out in the skies of the Gulf, but on the screens of Wall Street and at the pumps of millions of Americans.
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