A key valuation indicator now places bitcoin at a level not seen since March 2023, a period when BTC was hovering around $20,000. After several months of correction following its last historic peak, the market displays a reading rarely observed during the cycle. This configuration, taken from on-chain data, revives questions about the real state of the market and the position of bitcoin in its current phase.
In brief
- Bitcoin's MVRV ratio drops to 1.13, a level not seen since the period when BTC was hovering around $20,000.
- MVRV compares market capitalization to realized capitalization in order to measure the premium paid by investors.
- This reading comes in a context of prolonged market decline.
- Between a possible accumulation phase and caution in the face of uncertainty, the data reignites the debate on the current position of the cycle.
The MVRV reaches an unprecedented level since March 2023
While CryptoQuant calls for patience in the face of the decline of the flagship crypto, the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio, which compares the market capitalization of bitcoin to its realized capitalization, that is to say the value of BTC at the price of their last on-chain movement, poster a reading of 1.13.
This is its lowest level since March 2023, during which bitcoin was trading around $20,000.
THE factual elements highlighted are the following:
- MVRV fell to 1.13, marking its lowest level since March 2023;
- The threshold of 1.0 is historically considered an area of undervaluation;
- The decline comes after about four months of a downward trend;
- The previous all-time high was recorded in October 2025;
- The current cycle has not seen a zone of extreme overvaluation before the correction.
In the analysis, MVRV is presented as a classic indicator for assessing whether the market is paying a significant premium above the average investor acquisition cost. A reading close to 1.0 means that the market capitalization is close to the realized capitalization, which historically corresponds to phases of compressed valuation.
Historical capitulation and an atypical reading of the cycle
Beyond the raw MVRV level, the two-year MVRV Z-score reaches historic lows. Analysts believe that this configuration is comparable, or even lower, to those observed during previous major lows. Some on-chain observers even mention a “historical surrender zone”suggesting a moment of extreme pressure on holders.
Furthermore, the previous bitcoin cycle did not display a marked excess overvaluation before entering the bearish phase. This absence of excessive euphoria modifies the usual reading of cycles, where a phase of excitement generally precedes a profound correction. The current market would therefore evolve in a less classic configuration, which makes any mechanical comparison difficult.
On-chain data points to a valuation zone rarely observed since 2023. It remains to be seen whether the price of bitcoin consolidates a structuring low point or whether it enters an intermediate phase of the cycle. The coming weeks will allow us to measure the strength of this signal in the face of real market dynamics.
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