A massive deadline shakes the crypto markets this Friday. Nearly $3 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options mature on Deribit at 8:00 UTC. Traders remain on guard after last week's shock sell-off.
In brief
- $3 billion worth of options expire today on Deribit.
- Put options dominate, a sign of strong demand for protection.
- Bitcoin is trading around $66,372, far from the maximum pain point at $74,000.
A deadline closely scrutinized by the markets
The expiration of crypto options always represents a pivotal moment. This Friday, $3 billion in options mature at 8:00 UTC on Deribit, the leading global crypto derivatives platform recently acquired by Coinbase.
For bitcoin, notional open interest exceeds $2.53 billionwith a maximum pain price located around $74,000. Ethereum meanwhile shows $425 million in open interest, for a maximum pain point around $2,100.
These “max pain” levels indicate the prices at which the maximum number of options would expire worthless, generating the greatest losses for holders. A significant portion of open positions would therefore benefit from a rise towards these thresholds. However, sentiment remains cautious.
At the time of writing, bitcoin is trading around $66,000, far from its pain point. Ether is sailing near $1,950, also down.
This configuration creates palpable tension on the markets. Will traders try to push prices towards these strategic levels before the deadline? Or will caution prevail?
Risk indicators reveal a less visible but equally important reality. Bitcoin's risk reversal mechanisms remain heavily skewed toward puts.
According to Laevitas analysts, the one-week and one-month ratios show values of -13 and -11 volumes. These numbers reflect continued demand for downside protection options. Investors are paying a premium to hedge, reflecting continued concern.
The specter of the Bitcoin crash still looms
This nervousness is not unfounded. Last week, bitcoin briefly dipped below $60,000, triggering a cascade of massive liquidations.
Deribit called the event one of the “most extreme put demand movements seen in years.” Bitcoin's daily RSI touched 15.9, its sixth lowest oversold level since 2015.
These traumas leave lasting psychological traces. Even after prices stabilize, operators maintain a defensive posture.
THE data from Greeks.live confirm this trend: more than $1 billion worth of Bitcoin put options were traded on Wednesday, representing 37% of the total volume. The majority of these positions are out of the money, with strike prices between $60,000 and $65,000.
This concentration of put options suggests that institutional investors anticipate a medium-term downward trend. Some analysts even mention a high probability of a correction in the next one to two months.
The macroeconomic context doesn't help matters. Fears around artificial intelligence have caused a collapse in the technology sector. The Nasdaq fell 2% on Wednesday, dragging bitcoin with its fall.
The iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) plunged 3%, posting a 21% decline year to date. This growing correlation between crypto and tech exposes bitcoin to powerful headwinds.
The crypto market is going through a critical phase. The expiration of $3 billion in options will test investors' resilience. Between institutional caution and a timid return of optimism, the next few hours promise to be decisive for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
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