October is often expected to be the flagship month for bitcoin, but recent data challenges this myth. According to quantitative analyst Timothy Peterson, February would actually offer more reliable performance, supported by strong statistics and repeating market patterns. As January ends on an uncertain note, a new seasonal signal could emerge. What if the real “Uptober” now fell in February? This shift could well redefine crypto investment strategies this year.
In brief
- October is historically considered a bullish month for Bitcoin, but new analysis challenges this conventional wisdom.
- According to Timothy Peterson, February performs statistically better, with a median weekly return of 7% since 2016.
- The week of February 21 particularly stands out, with a median profitability of 8.4% and a positive closing probability of 60%.
- The first weeks of February often serve as a barometer for the year, as data from 2018, 2022 and 2025 have shown.
Historic performances that reshape seasonality
Analysis by Timothy Peterson, asset manager at Cane Island Alternative Advisors, reveals an unexpected seasonal signal: February outperforms October in terms of performance for bitcoin, while the latter falls in the face of declining risk appetite in the crypto market.
“February is actually the month that deserves the Uptober label”he says in a statement. This reading is based on concrete and consolidated data over several years, the accumulation of which reveals a repetitive pattern.
Here is the important points noted by the analyst:
- 8.4% median return for the week ending around February 21, with a 60% positive closing probability;
- A weekly median of +7% over the entire month of February since 2016, higher than the performance observed in October;
- The first three weeks of February acted as early indicators of annual trend in 2018, 2022 and 2025, with variations ranging from +4% to −5% depending on the year.
These observations are not presented as certainties, but as robust statistical benchmarks. Peterson specifies that these performances should be interpreted as signals of potential trends, useful in constructing an allocation strategy, especially in periods of cycle transition. In this sense, February appears not as a simple transition point in the calendar, but as a possibly decisive sequence for the crypto market.
Supporting macroeconomic and technical factors
Beyond simple historical data, several structural elements now seem to favor an upward dynamic next February.
For Peterson, the origin of this seasonality does not lie in purely crypto causes. He explains: “the driving force behind this performance is macroeconomic. Corporate financial results, published in mid-February, influence risk markets, of which bitcoin is now a part”. This correlation between macroeconomic flows and cryptos is no longer marginal. It is gradually establishing itself as an essential reading parameter.
On a technical level, other indicators confirm this reading. In a report from Bitcoin Intelligence, Sina highlights that BTC's momentum has returned to currently positive despite the recent correction.
The current market structure would be compatible with an accumulation phase. Even more, the continued rise in “Realized Cap” bitcoin, an indicator measuring the aggregate value of coins in circulation according to their last transaction price, suggests a constant influx of fresh capital onto the network. This type of signal is often interpreted as a marker of medium-term confidence on the part of institutional or long-term investors.
As seasonal benchmarks evolve, February stands out as a key month to watch. Between technical signals and macroeconomic forces, bitcoin is weathering the storm without losing its support, still attracting the attention of analysts. It remains to be seen whether this new cycle will confirm this shift or whether it will just be another statistical anomaly.
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