Bitcoin Rebounds… But the Dollar Could Send It Even Lower

Bitcoin is faltering again, caught in the turmoil of a tense global economic context. As sensitive political deadlines approach, fear returns to the markets and revives a well-known pattern: the fall of the dollar often precedes a low point in BTC. This inverse correlation, already observed during previous cycles, is once again intriguing investors. While bitcoin tries to rebound, macroeconomic signals are multiplying and suggest a new episode of high tension for the king asset of the crypto market.

A technical rebound under surveillance

After a weekly close considered fragile, bitcoin, despite the storm, attempted a surge at the opening of the American markets this Monday, briefly returning above the $88,000 mark.

This move was greeted with skepticism by several traders. Analyst Killa, in a comment relayed on X, specifies: “I think the maximum extension is around 89–91K before further decline”. This technical caution reflects a lingering mistrust about the strength of the rebound.

TradingView data confirm that this rebound occurred following a low at $86,000. However, multiple signals suggest that the market remains under pressure:

• The recovery remains modest and takes place in a context of increased volatility since the start of the year;
• The $86,000 level is seen as a critical threshold, the breaking of which could signal a new bearish phase;
• Technical resistances are around $89,000 to $91,000, limiting immediate upside potential;
• Overall trader sentiment remains cautious, in the absence of positive near-term macroeconomic catalysts.

This technical configuration reveals a wait-and-see market, where each price movement is analyzed closely by players, in search of a clearer directional signal. The return of volatility makes any forecast unstable, and attention is now focused on bitcoin's ability to preserve its recent lows.

Macroeconomic signals take over

Beyond technical considerations, certain players scrutinize macroeconomic developments to anticipate the next movements of bitcoin.

This is the case of trader BitBull, who draws attention to the growing weakness of the US dollar, measured by the DXY index. “Every time the DXY has fallen below 96 in the past, bitcoin has formed a bottom. Even BTC’s two biggest rallies happened when DXY fell below 96. And now the DXY crash seems imminent”he said on X, publishing a cross chart between BTC and the dollar.

This depreciation of the greenback, however, constitutes only one element among others in a macroeconomic context under high tension. Markets are having to deal with a series of uncertainties, ranging from the risk of a budgetary shutdown in the United States scheduled for January 30, to upcoming decisions by the Federal Reserve, including persistent trade tensions. In its weekly note, the firm QCP Capital evoked “an analogy with the budgetary standoff of last fall, which coincided with a sharp decline in the crypto markets”.

Faced with these tensions, signs of resilience are nevertheless emerging among long-term investors. Financial services provider IG believes that “despite the sharp decline, Monday’s rebound suggests that underlying demand remains intact”.

The company emphasizes that “long-term investors seem more willing to absorb supply at lower levels”interpreting the current sequence not as a structural break, but as a correction linked to macroeconomic shocks. IG identifies the $94,000 and $100,000 areas as potential resistance, while recalling the importance of the $86,000 threshold in the event of a relapse.

While the market remains tense, $1.72 billion is flowing out of US Bitcoin ETFs, reinforcing doubts about the strength of the rebound. Between macroeconomic uncertainties and technical pressure, the signals remain mixed. Bitcoin remains in a fragile zone, where each movement of the dollar or institutions can precipitate a decisive reversal.