November 2025 will remain marked by an explosive trio: an indecisive Fed, President Trump at war with Jerome Powell, and crypto markets looking for guidance. Between interest rates, presidential insults and the resilience of digital assets, the balance remains fragile.
In brief
- The Fed is hesitating on a rate cut in December, divided between inflationary risks and economic slowdown, plunging the markets into uncertainty.
- Trump escalates his attacks on Powell, calling him “mentally ill” and demanding his dismissal, adding unprecedented political pressure.
- Crypto, sensitive to these tensions, oscillates between short-term stress and signs of maturation in the face of traditional macroeconomic dynamics.
The Fed in wait-and-see mode: between internal division and demand for economic proof
The Federal Reserve is going through a period of deep indecision. Indeed, after the 0.25% rate cut in October 2025, there are persistent disagreements among its members. A majority are demanding additional economic data before considering another rate cut in December. While a minority fears inflation that will still be too high, close to 3%.
Jerome Powell clearly indicated that a decline in December was not a given! A cautious posture that contrasts sharply with the expectations of the financial and crypto markets. To this end, the odds of monetary easing, once estimated at 95%, now fall to 41%, as shown in the chart below.
Additionally, the government shutdown has made the situation worse by delaying the release of key employment reports. Without these indicators, the Fed would be sailing blind, reinforcing its wait-and-see attitude. Some officials advocate a prolonged pause, others rapid action in the event of a confirmed slowdown, creating an unprecedented climate of uncertainty.
Trump violently insults Jerome Powell and fuels volatility
Donald Trump has relaunched his attacks against Jerome Powell, this time accusing him of suffering from “ real mental problems » during an economic forum in Riyadh. “ He should be fired “, he said, repeating aggressive rhetoric that has aimed to discredit the Fed chairman for years.
These comments are part of a clear strategy: Trump wants a more accommodating Fed, with low rates to boost the economy before the next elections. He openly criticizes Powell's management, which he considers too cautious, and even threatens to replace him with a candidate more aligned with his views. An exit that adds a layer of stress on already nervous investors, amplifying the volatility of the crypto market.
Crypto: Resilience tested in the macroeconomic storm
The crypto market is trying to stabilize in a chaotic macroeconomic environment. As Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, points out:
The sharp decline in market expectations for a December Fed rate cut, now estimated at between 33% and 50% […] highlights increased macroeconomic uncertainty. At the same time, it reflects how closely crypto has become integrated with traditional finance, with digital assets now reacting to the same data gaps and policy delays that influence stocks and bonds. In the long term, this convergence is a positive sign of crypto's maturation into the mainstream.
In this context, the crypto market is trying to stabilize despite an unstable macroeconomic environment. After a brutal fall in October, bitcoin is showing signs of recovery, but remains below critical technical thresholds.
ETF flows illustrate this duality: net inflows for Bitcoin, but prolonged outflows for Ethereum.
The Fed, Trump and cryptos form an explosive cocktail at the end of 2025. Between monetary uncertainties and presidential rants, digital markets must deal with an unstable environment. In your opinion, will the Fed be able to provide reassurance, or is 2026 shaping up to be another year of turbulence for crypto?
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